San Antonio foreclosure rate

[abc123]

I'm just a humble student of REI and appreciate this forum. My question is: if San Antonio has what's considered  to be one of the country's most viable and affordable RE markets, why are the foreclosure rates among the highest in the country? Thanks.
Chris

[Bluemoon06]

Chris high foreclosure rates are a good thing.  What we want is foreclosures to be high and prices to be low so that we can buy as many houses as we can.  The factor we need to be aware of is jobs.  Since the unemployment rate in San Antonio is only 3.5% then there are people that are working and since they are not buying houses or losing them to foreclosure these people are not just going to evaporate, they are going to rent our houses.  This is the economic condition that we are looking for. 


We can buy house because they are cheap and the working people will rent them from us (making us rich)

[abc123]

Bluemoon. Thanks alot for the insight. I understand  what you're saying. I guess part of my question may be more in the nature of general, basic economics. If prices are low and people are working, and the fact that Texas hasn't got caught up in the exotic mortgage circus so much, why are there so many  foreclosures? I don't want to answer my own question but could it be that because prices are low and financing's been easy that people are biting off more house than they can chew?

Chris

[petemfa]

Chris,

You hit it right on the head..... It's the ECONOMIC factor that is causing the avalanche of foreclosures across this country.  It's not just a few states.

Let's look at some contributing factors. 

NUMBER 1.... OIL PRICES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

People in this country have INCREDIBLY SHORT memories.

Does anyone care to guess what oil sold for in 2001??????

 ...............$23 per barrel................You read that right $23 DOLLARS!!!

Today that same oil is $72 per barrel................OVER A 300% INCREASE
in 5 YEARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That impacts EVERYTHING we buy, EVERYTHING!!!!!!!!!!!! When your monthly fuel bill increases by a factor of 3 times, do the math.
These people are up to their eyeballs to begin with, tack on a 300% increase in a GOT TO HAVE product and you just took a PAY CUT BUDDY!

Add to that falling home prices and ARM teaser mortgages it all adds up to foreclosures.  You can't get a loan for $150,000 on a house that's now worth $125,000.  That's not a huge price drop but to someone barely making their intro rate payment, coming up with $25K inorder to refi. is like coming up with $250K.

Has anyone here been to a super market in the last year????????????
Talk about price increases.
You can take all the FED's CPI BULLSH#T and roll it up and burn it.  People are hurting in this country, debt is at ALL time highs, we have a NEGATIVE savings rate, that's always nice when you buy a home.  God help you if you're out of work for ANY amount of time, your screwed.

And INTEREST RATES are climbing because of SUB-PRIME which leads us right to the U.S. Dollar.  Anyone watching the dollar??????  It is at ALL TIME LOWS,  ALL TIME LOWS.  Great for exporters.  Oops, I forgot, we don't export that much anymore because we sent all our DECENT paying jobs to CHINA!!!!!  20 years ago the Port of Los Angeles EXPORTED TV's, appliances, stereos, tools, computers, electronics, steel, furniture, ect. ect.  Do you know what we export NOW????

SCRAP metal, lumber, oil, and commodities/food.

 That is EXACTLY what we use to BUY from third world countries. 

Oh, and let's ALL REMEMBER who funds our goverment now-a-days. .......CHINA........
What you thought your taxes did that????  They would if our representatives in Washington SPENT what they had on hand.  But that isn't happening.  So China, a third world country, who JUST NOW, has started dabbling in free markets pays for our spending spree.   The problem is their financial markets are like something out of the Wild West. They just EXECUTED a cabinet member in charge of inspections. House wives in CHINA are playing the "carry trade"  It's a freakin' house of cards. 

Look around you.... 

I know I'll get all the "your too negative posts"   It's not me folks it's just the reality of our times.

[abc123]

I suppose a basic question would be can housing prices continue to rise, or even remain flat, in an area
experiencing a high foreclosure rate, even if those prices (and the unemployment rate) are low by national standards?

[DAM]

Chris,

Are you tuned into NPR right now?  You wouldn't want to miss flick and flack on car talk.

What about the fact that the Dow closed at an all time high AGAIN this past week?  It's easy to concentrate on the negative isn't it?

Oil prices are near all time highs, and we still pay much less for our gasoline than the rest of the world has been paying for decades!  Oil prices are driven up every single summer just when we want to take Johnny and Mary to see the freakish mouse, or a whale in a big fish tank.  What can you do?  Not a thing, except travel less when prices raise up.  Or, ride a motorcycle that gets over 50mpg like I do.

There is no doubt about China, and we could all be wearing funny little baseball caps and carrying around little red books soon.  What exactly are you going to do about it?  Vote democratic next time?  Wonder why you never hear anything about China and the trade deficit and how they're going to fix it from any politicians?  The really important issues are rarely touched upon.

Fact is that as much trouble as some may think the world is in, polar bears with no ice, the TX blind salamander cannot get his eyes fixed by Medicaid, govt. cheese rations are shrinking.  As individuals we have to lump it and keep moving forward, looking for loopholes, and ways to attain our goals

In response to ABC's question,  IMHO the economy in the large cities in TX will continue to flourish as people continue to move here, (and the same goes for Florida) driving real estate prices up for some years to come.  The NAFTA highway, from Laredo to DFW and beyond will basically be one huge city years down the road, SATX to Austin is almost there now, and should be connected completely over the next 15-20 years.

Sure housing starts are off by 3% compared to last summer, but last summer was an all time record.  the pendulum has to swing back and forth.  There are strategies to win as it goes back and forth.   Do you know where the hottest housing market in the nation is right now?  Down in the Valley in south TX.

In fact there was a recent report that here in San Antonio in June foreclosures filed at the courthouse were lower than they have been in years,  but that the outlook forward is that this was just a blip and foreclosure rates will continue to rise.  Poise yourself to help out these people who are facing foreclosures and be abundant.

Stay away from CNN, MSNBC, FOX, NPR, The Express News and all the other mind numbing crapola the media shovels.  Live your life, not the life of fear that some would like you to live.  If you sit around thinking about how bad things are, guess what?  Things will be bad for you, the universe is listening all of the time.

[petemfa]

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Continued price appreciation in FLORIDA???????????

Are you kidding me????????????

They've got 7 YEARS OF HOUSING INVENTORY there, RIGHT NOW.

Condo developments have tumble weeds blowing through them.

If you're going to make up data at least use a place not as obvious as FLORIDA!!!!!!!!!!!!

I just talked to a lady facing foreclosure because she can't afford her home any more.  I explained to her that if she simply called her bank and told them that "we still pay less for gas than other places in the world" they would understand why her checking account is light every month.  Gas that used to cost her $200/ month and now costs $600/month should have no effect on her monthly income. She's just too negative, if she changes her ATTITUDE gas prices WILL come down.  If not she could ride a motorcycle to work.  I hear that's awesome in the rain or snow, and just think how much FUN her kids will have trying to balance on the handlebars while she drives the 2 of them to day care!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:help 

Keep on the SUNNY side of LIFE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Those aren't falling prices,  it's the Universe WATCHING us.

Don't listen to ANY news source!!!! I get MY information from a home built HAM radio, where I pick up broadcasts from the UNIVERSE. 


We're screwed

[fadi]

Well, housing in San Antonio is cheaper than other parts of the country, but so are the salaries. We don't get paid as good as other areas of the county and we do not have that many high paying jobs... No dell, no Microsoft, no large companies to drive the local economy. We have 4 army bases with about what? half a mil of soldiers and their families living in a city of 1.2 mil.

Most of the foreclosure calls I have seen are in the lower income/working class due to medical bills, loss of job, or divorce. These things happens regardless of market.

[DAM]

I did not quote any data, and did not state that prices were going up on real estate in florida

here is a place where you can find data http://www.househuntnews.com/MCR/Florida/

According to them things aren't near as bleak as you make them sound.  I call on 7 years of inventory based upon the information on the above link.  I don't live in florida, but I have a buddy who is making great money there as a mortgage broker and investor.

here is a report for 2007 san antonio market http://recenter.tamu.edu/mreports/SanAntonio.pdf

Obviously however you are getting your information, you might want to consider changing the channel, or just turning it off altogether and concentrate on helping that lady out if you can.

[petemfa]

THANKS!!!!!!!!!!!!  I just checked them out.

You found a web site run by realtors that has a positive outlook on Florida's real estate market.

HOW DO YOU DO IT!!!!!!!!!

This week the NAR (national assoc. of realtors)  stated that 2008 would see price increases nationally. 

Other GREAT NAR quotes from the past....................
 
2005 ...........ARM's are the way to go now,  why lock in an interest rate when according to our data rates will continue to fall for the next 5 years.

2006..........We think this whole downturn scenerio is bunk.  Our agents are busier than ever (yea, things get that way when banks are listing  foreclosures by the dozen)

2007............. We see a turn around in 2008. 

WEW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Glad THAT'S over...... Man, that housing correction really wasn't that bad.

Hey,  just between you and me................ I'm taking ALL my money and putting in the STOCK market RIGHT NOW!!!!!!!!!!!  It's hitting new highs EVERY week.  I don't know anything about it but I have a friend who lives in New York, he tells me the janitor in his building is making GREAT money on stocks.

Gotta go, I have to explain to those pesky bankers why the UNIVERSE IS WATCHING.

[petemfa]

THANKS!!!!!!!!!!!!  I just checked them out.

You found a web site run by realtors that has a positive outlook on Florida's real estate market.

HOW DO YOU DO IT!!!!!!!!!

This week the NAR (national assoc. of realtors)  stated that 2008 would see price increases nationally. 

Other GREAT NAR quotes from the past....................
 
2005 ...........ARM's are the way to go now,  why lock in an interest rate when according to our data rates will continue to fall for the next 5 years.

2006..........We think this whole downturn scenerio is bunk.  Our agents are busier than ever (yea, things get that way when banks are listing  foreclosures by the dozen)

2007............. We see a turn around in 2008. 

WEW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Glad THAT'S over...... Man, that housing correction really wasn't that bad.

Go to www.floridahomeloan.com to see how "GREAT" the Florida mortgage business REALLY is right now!!!!   Oh, but I guess THAT info is too negative,
Quick, shut it off, their watching!!!!

Hey,  just between you and me................ I'm taking ALL my money and putting in the STOCK market RIGHT NOW!!!!!!!!!!!  It's hitting new highs EVERY week.  I don't know anything about it but I have a friend who lives in New York, he tells me the janitor in his building is making GREAT money on stocks.

Gotta go, I have to explain to those pesky bankers why the UNIVERSE IS WATCHING.

[abc123]

DAM and FADIZ. Thanks for the information. 'Sounds good to me. About what I would have expected really.
Being the newest of the newbies, I'll take a pass on the economics discussion; Malthus' Iron Law of Wages, and Keynesian theories to raise aggragate demand, and such things. Although if China decided to stop being funny with their money as far as currency valuations go, some things would be different.

[bizarrefun]

everyone should listen to shortwave radio stations,,,,u get the real news from abroad etc!!!!!!



my 2 cents

Robert A. Doncaster, Jr. - "RAD"
Import/Export Entrepreneur & Investor
*** DO YOUR HOMEWORK ***

Chicago Illinois USA
& sometimes Salzburg, Austria

[DeeinAustin]

I blogged about this topic today. Basically, Texas has high foreclosures because of a number of reasons. 2-3 years ago, we had a lot of refinances from home owners removing equity. At the same time, it was a buyer's market with a lot of out-of-town investors. Buyers weren't putting much down and were getting adjustable mortgages with the intent to sell within 3-5 years.

Now, there's a glut of homes on the market in San Antonio and Houston, which are extremely large cities. It's not that the entire market is tanking. They just had a lot of sales and refinances, therefore a lot of foreclosures.

http://texasrealestate.blogs.com/weblog/2007/07/explain-thisif-.html

[kwk]

I think DeeinAustin hit the nail on the head, home equity loans are still a relatively new thing in Texas, a lot of people got carried away with them and pulled too much equity out.

I lived in San Antonio for about 12 years until moving back to houston a few months ago, the easy credit of the last few years greatly exacerbated the problem. I know several friends that bought 200K houses nothing down, when they have a househould income of less than 60K, if I had to guess I would say most of them are in varying stages of default/foreclosure. One friend in particular actually complained to me that he didn't know until he had been int he home for a year that the mortgage amount didn't include property taxes.

San Antonio doesn't have the job base that a lot of other places have, no heavy industry and the economy is tourism/service based.  A small dip in the tourism economy can hurt a lot of people there