Something Unique

[bizarrefun]

When u see the cranes in your city u know a recession is coming

just an observation over the years,,,some may get this this


my 2 cents

Robert A. Doncaster, Jr. - "RAD"
Import/Export Entrepreneur & Investor
*** DO YOUR HOMEWORK ***

Chicago Illinois USA
& sometimes Salzburg, Austria

[Rich_in_CT]

I'm lost......anyone know what he's talking about?

[NJREstudent]

i think he's referring to the bloomberg article i posted about earlier regarding miami... there was a paragraph about how all these projects had already been funded and now miami has a ton of cranes still building condos, while there is a lot of supply still.

[LIGHTBEING]

huh?  This statement is too general and probably incorrect most of the time.  Certainly there are overbuilt markets like Miami.  However, when I see cranes and money start pouring into a submarket, that is typically a good sign.  Infact that is what I target. 

[kdhastedt]

When I was in Germany, the cranes built nests in chimneys....does that count?

Keith

[petemfa]

Bizarrefun is right.

2 years ago I went to Miami with a friend of mine, he was buying pre-construction condos down there by the boat load.  When I saw the skyline I commented on all the cranes.  I said "Man, this looks a little scary, can this market absorb all this inventory?"
He looked at me like I had 3 heads.   "It's gold mine down here"
 
"OK, but this level of building CAN'T LAST." 

2 years later my friend owns 3 new condos, can't sell ANY of them for what he paid and now has 3 beautiful NEGATIVE cash flowing RENTALS.

The point Bizarre was making is if it looks like the new state bird is the building crane get ready for a coming downturn in that market.  Cripes, it's basic economics people,  you over build, you discount, go bankrupt, or rent 'em.   None of those scenerios makes money.  It's all out there in front of us, some people see it and some don't.

[LIGHTBEING]

Yeah but to compare every metropolitan area with cranes to a market like Miami is a bit over the top.  Certainly there are cases of overbuilding.  And ofcourse there is a macro economy at play.  However, to evaluate an area correctly you need to consider the micro cycles of the given market/submarket.  Typically, when builders come to build and money pours into the area for development, it creates a positive upswing.  Development should not be viewed as a negative. 

[bizarrefun]

one of my business colleagues from tradeshows just lost 40k in miami on one of those......i told him a year ago,,,,

no listen....

hehe  lol


my 2 cents

Robert A. Doncaster, Jr. - "RAD"
Import/Export Entrepreneur & Investor
*** DO YOUR HOMEWORK ***

Chicago Illinois USA
& sometimes Salzburg, Austria

[Sponge1022]

If thats the case, then Beijing is in trouble.  Actually I should say all of China!

What about Dubai?

[abc123]

According to greater minds than mine, there are some clouds on China's horizon. What's the old sports motto? Thing's are never as good as they seem when you're winning or as bad as they seem when you're losing.

[bizarrefun]

india and vietnam will replace china,.,,,


read your history,,,,,,,,,

my 2 cents

Robert A. Doncaster, Jr. - "RAD"
Import/Export Entrepreneur & Investor
*** DO YOUR HOMEWORK ***

Chicago Illinois USA
& sometimes Salzburg, Austria

[abc123]

They certainly will. Definately read your history, but read some economics to. And don't ignore the classics like David Ricardo.

[hammertime]

no listen....

hehe  lol

I'll have what he is having.......

[kdhastedt]

I'm thinking that whatever it is that he's having will have long-term ill effects...

Keith

[Serio]

Don't know about anyone else but I'm tired of seeing "my 2 cents" and using commas to replace periods, I'm losing my mind.