Something Unique

[Rich_in_CT]

I find the information that Pete and Bizzarefun (though his posting style is dreadfully annoying at times) to be very informative and though they don't always seem to correlate with real estate investing directly they most certainly do impact our investing.  Things like the hedge fund issues directly impact liquidity and therefore causes us as investors to have less access to money (bad) but more access to good deals (obviously good).  The economy as a whole is tied together as one big bundle and every effects everything else, a monetary butterfly effect.  If people don't like reading their posts or disagree they should not click the threads they post, easy.  Whining like little girls about it is pointless and banning people like them would stop a good flow of information from this board.  I know myself personally I've learned a lot from Pete, both public postings and private messaging.

[propertymanager]

Oh yea, I just remembered......because the market was TOTALLY DIFFERENT and not headed into freefall.   Hey 2 weeks ago the DOW hit 14000,

Pete,

While I agree with you that there are serious problems that probably will lead to a serious downturn (SHOULD lead to a serious downturn), I would not call the current fall in the stock market a "freefall".  In fact, I think the stock market is still tremendously overvalued at it's current level.  If it hits 7700 in the next two weeks (it won't), I would call that a freefall AND AN OPPORTUNITY.  

The mess they are now dealing with WILL be the reason the readers here will have a hell of a tough time getting financing in the very near future.  Think I'm making that up, or it's some sort of "speculative ranting??"

Personally, I'm not too concerned about getting financing.  Yes, I believe it will get harder, but the banks have got to make money and they'll have a tough time doing that if they stop making loans.  In addition, with the increased number of desperate sellers, there will be more opportunities to buy properties at unheard of discounts and more opportunities to do creative deals.  I have done many sub-2, lease option, and owner financing deals and expect to do more.  

The last 5 years of the real estate market was simply a bubble caused by the Fed.  The bubble is rapidly deflating as it certainly should which will mean fantastic opportunities for smart real estate investors.  In fact, I would argue that NOW (or in the near future if you're in a bubble area) may be a once in a life time opportunity to make a small fortune in real estate!

The rental market in my little corner of Ohio has dramatically improved recently.  A year ago, when I had a vacancy, I could count on that unit being vacant for AT LEAST a month.  Today, I took a non-refundable deposit for an apartment that won't be vacant until Sept 1 and the new tenant hasn't even seen the inside of the unit!  I am also seeing MUCH better tenants.  A year ago, all I was seeing was the biggest losers on the planet.  Now, I am getting people with good jobs who have lost their homes to foreclosure.  No criminal records.  No drug dealing!  They're back to being renters - right where they belong.  AMEN!

So, while the real estate market isn't what it was over the last few years, I say GREAT!  It's about time we returned to reality!

Mike (I'm still buying!)

[petemfa]

Mike,

I think I agree with you on EVERY point you just made.

Believe it or not, I have NOTHING to add to that.

(This is the part where the choir music should start.)

Hallellujah!!!!!!!!!!!!  (had to "spell check it"  Oh great one.)

[hammertime]

  

(had to "spell check it"  Oh great one.)

How long are you going to belly-ache about your inability to spell?  You were questioned...you responded, so grow-up.

I have found the majority of your posts to be very informative and thought provoking.  I used to look forward to them.  This is where I agree with Mdhaas, I would like to see you go back to your more concise way of posting as it was much easier to follow and digest.  Now it is like a bomb blast and hard to wrap your mind around.

We have pm'd in the past and I enjoyed/appreciated your input.

Now I am starting to lose interest as your petty whinings increase.  Suck it up.  Get back to the issues at hand.  If you are going to teach, then teach.  If you are going to whine..go to your room.

[kdhastedt]

What I find extremely comical is that this is not about petemfa, it's about bizarro-world...

Normally, the only time that people find fault about spelling and punctuation is when it's so abyssmal that no one can follow it or when one sets themselves up by crushing the stones of others about it.

To be honest with you, until just recently (during the current romance period), I have had no real issues with petemfa, even though I vehemently disagree with his politics and the occasional name-calling fit, he is free to post about REI pretty much as he pleases. 

My opinion is that the skins around here should be a little tougher and that the posts should stick to REI in some fashion or another (and, no, risky hedge funds and their collapse have no direct correlation to REI).

My two cents...hehe lol.

Keith

[petemfa]

I have to say it...............These Hedge funds are WHERE those bank mortgages end up.  To say they'll have no correlation to REI is like saying money has nothing to due with success in NASCAR racing.  You dry up the money in ANYTHING and you've got problems.  BIG problems.
When the CEO of Bear Stearns says the credit markets are as bad as he's seen them in 22 years, we better ALL see the correlation.  They're not called CREDIT MARKETS for nothing.  I know Keith is a smart guy, I know he knows his business, but saying there is no correlation is just not so.

That's my entire point.  The fall out WILL directly effect REI because the liquidity needed for these markets to function is going away.

I'm not going to bore you guy's with this stuff anymore.  Some good  points made by all.  I know I can beat the dead horse about as good as anyone, just keep your eye on things around us.

[PaulBroni]

Agreed with Pete. When these large funds have hard times, people shift out of some asset classes and move into other ones. If there is a huge shift out of mortgages--be they A-rated or subprime--then financing gets harder to come by for ALL RE buyers. Lack of financing means what is available costs more, and when financing costs more, housing prices suffer because people are looking only at the monthly.

As a flipper who renovates and retails, this is a very big concern for me.

[soholingo]

My opinion is that the skins around here should be a little tougher and that the posts should stick to REI in some fashion or another (and, no, risky hedge funds and their collapse have no direct correlation to REI).

My two cents...hehe lol.

Keith

This is my point about Pete's posts.  I had no idea how the hedge funds were related to the housing market, but it was not difficult to see once it was explained.   I don't know why Keith doesn't see it as relevant. 

Perhaps if the mods saw his comments as relevant then there would be less of an issue with pete's posts.

[hammertime]

Let's be honest here.  

Anything can be extrapolated in to having an effect on housing.  

The decrease in what is paid to farmers for milk can cause a ripple effect in the real estate industry.  It could mean that if he/she gives up farming, the land becomes available..........."poof" there is an increase in available real estate.  Now depending on the market this can be good or bad.

People find out that ocean water causes cancer and now all of the beach front properties lose their value.



etc., etc., etc.,...........

I think that what is being said by the moderator's is, "let's maintain some kind of realistic parameters."

[petemfa]

Maybe I need to explain this a little better.  Sometimes it's hard to get the flow of an idea going in the direction it needs to go.

Hammertime, this is for you.........

 Bear Stearns last week filed BANKRUPTCY proceedings for the fund we're talking about here.  Why is that a big deal???  It's a good question and I know we're ALL sick of hearing this SUB-PRIME BLAH, BLAH, BLAH, on the news every night, but the thing we are NOT hearing is how it WILL DEFINITLEY effect future mortgages.

When these funds became insolvent it hit WALL St. like a train.  These people (the fund buyers) were told that this was a prime rated mortgage backed security, supposedly good stuff.  The problem began when it's sub-prime cousin started to fall apart.  People saw this and started calling and wanting OUT of ANY type of mortgaged backed security.  Basically they had a "run on the bank"  That is never good........EVER! 

Since last week 3 more funds have locked investors OUT. In other words THEY CAN NOT GET THEIR MONEY.   Now what would you be doing RIGHT NOW if you had money in a fund similar to that one.  MY guess???? Monday morning they'll be making out a check with your name on it. And THAT is EXACTLY why this EFFECTS REI. Now do you understand Stearns CEO's comment this week that it "is as bad as anything I've seen in 22 years."
By the way........THAT comment cost the DOW 280 points.  But hey, it's not connected right? 

The days of the local banks loaning "Jim your neighbor" his mortgage money are GONE.  These mortgages are sold instantly to big investment banks like Stearns who get the issuing bank their piece of the pie and move the loan into bundles.  Now if the BIG bank can't PLACE those bundles,  that is a BIG, BIG problem.  The whole system starts to re-adjust rates to make the RISK associated with those mortgages more attractive to investors.  The problem these guy's are having now is so many banks are getting killed here that THEY CAN'T PLACE THE DEBT!!! 

AT ANY PRICE!!!!!

Do you not see how bad that is??????????  Where do you think that money came from???  If your under the impression that banks loan people money from deposits THEY have?? YOUR ABOUT 40 years lost.  That is NOT how it works today. 

Go out tonight and attach a giant chain to the corner of your home and pull on it with the biggest truck you can find and see what happens.  That is a better analogy than milk prices effecting real estate.  You pull that corner out and the whole house goes with it.

I'm not making this up.  Read some of NJREstudents posts. He works on Wall St. as a bond guy.  He's scared "you know whatless" right now.  Ask HIM???

This is CLASSIC Yea, Yea, I know sub-prime is bad.

But the problem is...I bet there are 5 people here who could actually tell us how this effects the economy.  I'm not saying I'm one of them. There are guy's here a hell of a lot smarter than me.  But I've only read 2 or 3 posts from ANYONE even trying to explain it here. And as USUAL we will all become very familiar with the whole system AFTER it breaks.

[soholingo]

But the problem is...I bet there are 5 people here who could actually tell us how this effects the economy.  I'm not saying I'm one of them. There are guy's here a hell of a lot smarter than me.  But I've only read 2 or 3 posts from ANYONE even trying to explain it here. And as USUAL we will all become very familiar with the whole system AFTER it breaks.

That's it!!!  When/if it collapses everyone will say they knew it was coming. 

Let me say the logic is there, it makes sense.  Especially when compared to the alternatives:

1.  Things stay the same (this rarely if ever happens).

2.  Things get better.  That would mean housing prices continue rise.  If they are going to continue the rise what are the indicators that it will rise?  How is the money situation?  Is there a housing shortage? etc...

3.  Things will get worse.  What are the indicators?  People losing homes, interest rates rising, and real estate bond funds folding.

Of the three options number three is the most logical.  If people point out more esoteric items then I work to understand them (ie BearSterns). 

Once I have an idea of what's going to happen, then I can react.