DJIA Predictions

[Liquidity]

no rally its broken through thats for sure. fall threw baby 

let us get some capitulation here.

[propertymanager]

I don't see any capitulation here.  Next stop 7,200, then maybe we'll get FDJake's monster bear market rally before we head to 5,500 (actually 5700).  After that, there's absolutely no support until 4,000.  When we get the big bear market rally, I'll be SELLING!

Mike

[Liquidity]

I wonder if the FAKE auto bailout announcement was a test to see how investors would act. otherwise it was a pump and dump job by the good old us government.

[propertymanager]

I wonder if the FAKE auto bailout announcement was a test to see how investors would act.

Now they know!  They simply will not allow the Big 3 to fail.  GM is really the only concern...they will need to hang on until Obama takes office.  Then, the Big 3 will get the first of several bailouts to see them through the depression.

Mike

[rookieNYC]

from what I heard even if they do bailout these losing businesses there will be severe restructuring of the unions and the operations..And imo the unions for the first time in their lives will have to accept these terms because if they choose to try and play hardball with the Govt they will quickly learn they will lose it all..Better to have a job than no job..

I want to express my true hatred for the auto industry and that I feel they should go bankrupt to teach these unions a lesson but at the same time I don't want any Americans to lose their jobs..Regardless if I can't stand what they stand for..So YES I am for bailing them out but it doesn't change my mind on the auto industry and the UAW..Patriotism above all else,even though it sickens me to feel this way..

[fdjake]

None of that matters as far as the investment goes.

The Unions AND Management BOTH screwed these companies up BIG TIME. 

The bottom line is this....

Two very telling questions were asked yesterday.  The Professor who came to speak out AGAINST the  loan package and the head of the UAW were both asked to grade the 3 companies as far as their ability to SURVIVE was concerned......

BOTH of these men agreed that FORD was in better shape than BOTH GM and Chrysler.

No matter how this goes....there is NO WAY ON EARTH we lose ALL 3.
With that in mind BUY FORD'S STOCK NOW!!!!!!

Did anyone see the 50% JUMP in FORD STOCK today????   Just the announcement of a POTENTIAL DEAL sent shares flying.

THIS IS LOW HANGING FRUIT GENTLEMAN...........GRAB IT!!!!!

[propertymanager]

7,200, 5,500, then 4,000.  Those are the next 3 stops in the DOW.  Since this is a prediction thread, my prediction is that we'll see a rally after hitting 7,200, which will be a good chance to sell my next layer of covered calls on F and ACI.

Anyone else with predictions?  Up?  Down?  Right Off the Cliff?  The talking heads on CNBC were trying to say that today was capitulation.  Then they made the mistake of having Peter Schiff and a female technical expert on the show, who both said that the market was headed lower.  Peter Schiff said that he believes the economy is about ready to collapse.

Mike

[fdjake]

Schiff's been right on almost everything for the last 4 years!!

A Tradeable bounce will come as we get more info from the new Obama Administration, but it can not hold back the eventual drop this market HAS to have.

Ask yourself a very simple question.....

Where do I see signs of a TURN AROUND???

The answer is...... THERE ISN'T any signs of a turnaround ANYWHERE. 

Buying stocks based on WHERE they WERE is like buying HOUSES based on what they sold for in 2005!!!!!
Does anyone here CARE what a house sold for during the BOOM???
No...of coarse not....then WHY in the world would you care WHERE stocks prices were in 2007???

It's ridiculus.....Yet this is what the "experts" do EVERYDAY.

My question is..........How CHEAP does CITI bank look now???? 

How CHEAP did Lehman look at $25 when George Soros stepped on his d*ck and bought MILLIONS of shares only to see his investment EVAPORATE...

We're in a whole new world of CHEAP.....What was cheap in 2005 looks like "ALL THE MONEY" now.  My feeling is what "LOOKS" cheap in late 2008 will look like "ALL THE MONEY" by 2010.

[allagash]

Like thin ice in Winter...don't think it's gonna take much more to break through previous lows.

Fdjake and his job losses are mounting.

Foreclosures show no end in sight.

Banks again, are clamouring for bailouts in the billions.

-Mike

[propertymanager]

The market should have been at new lows a long time ago.  However, whenever bad news looks like it will certainly drive the market lower, the government promises another bailout.  It's going to be interesting to see how long the government can keep the market afloat with funny money.  Just hope that the printing press doesn't break down from working 24/7!

Mike

[rookieNYC]

I know I may sound like a broken record but I like International etfs here...Most intl etfs have been hammered to the tune of +%75 losses...Thats an area I would feel comfortable *starting* to accumulate from...The U.S. markets will keep up this impossible pattern in which it mauls longer term directional traders and does the same for the hedged bunch..Choppy markets are impossible for any style of trade unless you know how to scalp with size..There has been some great opps for these type of plays lately and this week alone has been one of my best in months for scalping..But scalping isnt for everyone..A great guy to read is David Fry http://www.etfdigest.com/davesDaily.php   He is very insightful on the intl and domestic markets and a very good technician..

Other than scalps and my bond fund holdings I have made no money on trying to position trade as of late..After a small gain turned into a loss I took a stop on a very diminutive portion of closed end funds I owned in my portfolio..I'm currently researching a private REIT that pays %8 dividend and buys properties all cash with no leverage..Hotels etc...Other than that I'm watching the bond market more than anything at this point..My allocation stands at %90 in Bonds and %10 in cash...I'm making about %7.25 on my basket of bond funds and at the moment I'm up close to %4 (in gains) on the year,not including the dividends I will get every 31st of the month...Corporate Bond funds are worth researching.the bond market will recover before the stock market and considering the banking sector isn't going parabolic out of the current dumps its in, bond funds are worth a look..

[allagash]

David Fry....

Commentary tied directly to price movements.

I like it.  I like it...a lot.

Thanks for the link.

-Mike

[allagash]

Obama’s Plunge Protection Team resorted to hitting the “Send” button yesterday….with their Reuter’s Press Release.

DJIA was intradaying with a -241 free fall.

A flash in the pan.

-Mike

[allagash]

where's Winston Wolf when you need him?

-Mike

[allagash]

As of today's closing of 7,465...we're within only 383 points of having a full half of the Dow's record high of 14,164 on October 9th, 2007 being wiped out.

Here's a good video clip from late this afternoon...Meredith Whitney trash talking Citigroup:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29286263

Wonder if Saudi Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal and Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim are still holding on there...

-Mike
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JX9k6gFX_TQ&feature=PlayList&p=A15DD7396F16A5A5&playnext=1&index=8