AIRLINE stocks SOAR ^^

[Liquidity]

John

i understand that many people that are employed by airlines have bad opinions of those companies. but in those 3 months  A LOT has changed in august oil was $110/ barrel it just went through june and july record highs in oil prices. oil is $40 less now and will most likely be another $20 to $30 less beginning of 09.


can you explain what what you don't like about the company you work for ?? I'm interested in hearing about what bad treatment or any thing negative they do as a business. I have read alot about employees dis-satisfied with airline companies.

as far as a stock i see them being a winner for the next year. i sold my DAL and UAUA earlier today - 10% for the day. I think airlines get pulled back down more this week. they're too high for this market and people selling will let them go. either taking profits from the last 10 day run or hedge funds liquidating to meet margin calls.

I like DAL the best out of all of them btw

[Liquidity]

riding airlines now. oil is in the crapper and airlines will be profitable. they had their pullback ride the wave up now.

[Liquidity]

options expiration week next week =  Short Squeezes 

[rookieNYC]

options expiration week next week =  Short Squeezes 

I made %5.75 today......I can't even explain how happy I am...I loaded the boat into the close yesterday..I also bought an unreal amount of FFFFX at yesterdays close at $5.39 and blew it all out today..No holding period but I can't trade that fund for 30 days...boo hoo...Up about %11 on the year now....What an incredible day....

[Liquidity]

man im getting to the point where i have no idea whats going on in this market. no buyers at all. just bounces off the lows and then a sell off. wash rinse re-peat. even the rallies from the lows are small. last rally was 1 day lmao.

trading this market is not healthy.

the worst part is the gov and their bs. feds/treasury hearing is pissing me off. of course these guys picked who lived and died in banks, so they could leverage that 700 billion. allowed banks to buy smaller banks take their bad assets as tax write-offs instead of buying those bad assets directly. but when it comes to jobs the middle class they are bickering over an auto bailout.

if they would treat the auto's evenly to the banks they would give them tax write-offs and let them sell their overstock cars at a huge discount.  everyone in america could have a new car @ 1/2 off.  that would be the same thing they did for the financials but we know they wouldnt do that.

[Liquidity]

well made a little trade before close on UYG. the only way to make money in this enviroment is to be a sniper. wait and watch for your spots to take what they give you.

[fdjake]

You don't TRADE this market, unless you do it for a living...

The path of least resistance here is DOWN...

THINK....

We are seeing this economy come apart at the seams....Without EXCEPTION, the economists have BLOWN EVERY SINGLE FORECAST they've made for the last 2 years.

This is a GLOBAL event....

The ONLY stat that will matter very shortly is JOB LOSSES!!!!
The economy CAN NOT side step job losses.  It boogles my mind that we have a event that is STILL unfolding on a GLOBAL scale, and we have NIT WITS talking about a peak unemployment number of 7%-8%.
That is complete BS.   The job losses will be HISTORIC, just like the HOUSING BUST was historic, like the price of OIL was HISTORIC,  like the freeze up of the credit markets was HISTORIC, and ON and ON.....Yet the economists expect RUN OF THE MILL job losses during this recession??????

Real money will be made by those who realize that the lows we are now trading at ARE NOT a BUYING OPPORTUNITY....They are your last chance to GET OUT!!!!  Being SHORT here will be a VERY PROFITABLE position.   This should be set up as a LONG TERM trade....buying way out of the money, long time, puts in some select ETF's will be CASH COWS over the next year as the REALITY of this MESS is driven home.  This will be EXACTLY the same scenerio that people WATCHED as housing prices fell FURTHER than even the most pesimistic person believed they would.

We have just entered the most painful and important part of this cycle.  The part we the Recession turns to depression....The difference?????
A recession is when your NEIGHBOR losses HIS job....A DEPRESSION is when YOU lose YOURS!!!

Most of us here will be postioned to pick up Real Estate at prices that we would have NEVER thought possible.  The most important thing to remember during this event is the POWER OF CASH!!!  In a deflationary event, contrary to popular believe, CASH actually INCREASES in value.  I'm not talking about CURRENCIES, I'm talking about YOU having a bank account with CASH in it .  When the owner of that 40 acres you've been talking with finally can't take it any longer and calls you to DUMP the price, that CASH will be the most POWERFUL negotiating tool in the world!!!!

The FOUNDATIONS of Future EMPIRES are being built RIGHT NOW!!!!
You can dig in and HUNKER DOWN, or you can grab that shovel and start BUILDING!!!!!!!

[propertymanager]

The truth is that unemployment is MUCH higher than 8-9% right now.  However, the government has changed the way the report all the numbers over the years and therefore the numbers are all bogus.  This morning's CPI report indicated prices are decreasing, but except for fuel and autos, I'm still seeing (with my own two eyes) prices increasing.  The miniblinds that I put in my rentals just went from $3.96 to $4.76.  A 10 piece chicken McNuggets (just the nuggets) a few months ago was $2.00.  Then they jumped to $2.60.  Last week, they jumped again to $2.80!  In my opinion, we still have strong inflation (ex-fuel and autos, as the government would say).  Widespread deflation of prices hasn't even begun yet, but I certainly agree that it could.

Mike

[fdjake]

I just read something this morning that made a lot of common sense.

The reason prices will/are falling is DEMAND!!!  It's so simple, it's actually hard to invision....The market place never lies...Prices are/will continue to fall because the CONSUMER is GONE, DONE, FINISHED!!

Manufacturers CAN NOT pass price increases along because there is NO DEMAND for their products.

The interesting twist on this is exactly what you mentioned Mike...
McDonalds was one of the FEW companies that actually passed along prices increases because there are so many TRADE DOWN consumers.  These are people who would RARELY eat at McDonalds, but are now going there BECAUSE of those $2.80 McNugget dinners.
I have also read that the HOUSING BUST could be contributing to this trend.  As people lose their homes they actually EAT OUT more often as a type of mental vacation from their new reality.

There is a GREAT book that you should buy TODAY!!! 

Its........"Conquering The Crash" by Robert Prechter (He's the Elliot wave Guru that see's the Dow hitting 1000 before this is over)

Mike,  You could have wrote this book....EVERYTHING you've been talking about is in there along with some INCREDIBLY insightful observation based on over 100 years of market history.

[propertymanager]

FDJake,

Thanks for the book recommendation.  I will order it today!  I'm currently reading the book "The End of Prosperity" by Arthur B. Laffer, Stephen Moore, and Peter J. Tanous.  It's a very good book about the history of taxes in the United States and their effect on the economy.

Mike

[Liquidity]

I think Shorting is the only way to make money in here anymore. i dont see this thing improving anytime soon.

if they let the autos fail i bet i will be able to get HUGE discounts on homes in michigan (not detroit) grand rapids. i have already been looking at them because they are very cheap.

if the autos go BK the banks would begin fire sales to unload the ton of foreclosures.


Alan Greenspan is really making a name for himself. I cant believe people pay for that 4 eyed frog to talk to them. 

[fdjake]

I'll  lay out the Auto companies FAIL SAFE Plan.......

You watch.....this is EXACTLY how this will be played IF the Big 3 DO NOT get those LOANS before January....


The Big 3 are "playing nice" right now.....They are trying to explain how bad things could get if they DO NOT get these bridge loans.  If the CEO's can't get Congress to understand the IMPACT of a failure of the Big 3 in TESTIMONY.....THEY WILL SHOW THEM....FIRST HAND....UP CLOSE and in REAL LIFE!!!!


If the lame duck session of Congress screws this up and DOES NOT give the car makers bridge loans IMMEDIATELY the Automakers will announce absolutely MASSIVE LAYOFFS......and I mean MASSIVE....this will hit ALL suppliers IMMEDIATELY!!!  They will, in turn, announce THEIR MASSIVE Lay offs.

The stock market will get DESTROYED as banks, pensions, mutual funds, and many others, holding MASSIVE amounts of stock and debt in the Big 3 and THEIR SUPPLIERS will sell.

This event will be on the news EVERY MINUTE OF THE DAY......Think about it.....this is what our MEDIA LIVES FOR......I can already see the cameras set up outside the plants, inside the homes of laid off employess WEEKS before Christmas, parents CRYING, kids CRYING.....This will be a GIFT for the major media outlets.  Congress will turn on a DIME as soon as January 20th rolls around because THEY (the Dems) will now play the role of SAVIORS!!!   This is POLITICAL GOLD for the Democrats.  I think the Republicans are being played like a piano. 

EITHER WAY.......They GET whatever MONEY they need!!!!

[rookieNYC]

trading this market is not healthy.

I totally agree with you on this.Realistically trading is never healthy in any market condition...The stress is immense...This is why I constantly tell people to stay out of this market...This is a pro's ONLY market and I can tell you some professional traders I know have lost %30-%40 on multi million dollar (personal) accounts so far this year..That kind of % loss devastates any account,big or small...That kind of % loss changes lives forever..That type of loss will take *decades* to rebuild considering the current economic issues we are going through..

I took a stop yesterday on my etf basket..no big deal...%1.2 on the %10 of capital I used...Could be worse...I will re-enter soon if we get a good bleed..

[fdjake]

Just curious here Rookie....

Why fight the tide on this???

Maybe I'm completely wrong on this....but everything I see points to a HUGE UNDER ESTIMATING of this economic event.  All we seem to hear is what a great "bargain" stocks are....that alone makes me look at the other side. 

Wouldn't it be easier to just be short here...take a longer term time frame and just wait....... for what, in all likely hood, is coming????

I'M JUST PICKING YOUR BRAIN HERE....not trying to argue a point.

[Liquidity]

 i just dont know about the bounce off the lows anymore, well atleast for today. I could see the market falling threw it very soon.

I cant believe im saying that with options expiration in 2 days. I'm in all cash and might bite on something probably not though.