Have you Noticed...

[Roger J]

The massive decline in posts on website?

Now, the real question is why?  Is it because RE has taken a big plunge and all the newbies and wannabees have decided to look for something else (as well as many more experienced investors have)?  Is it because all of the doom and gloom talk that has been going on on these boards, in earnest, for awhile? Is it because real estate investing is simply "old news?"  Am I just crazy?

Just curious if anybody else has noticed and, if so, what's your opinion of the why?

Raj

[justin0419]

There may have been a decline in useful posts here, but there's been a big increase in the number of spammer posts.  Seems almost every new account recently has posted wanting us to buy viagra or see "secret" videos of the Moderators...
I'm wondering if a lot of people aren't circling the wagons now and trying to weather the storm.  Seems the media has somewhat caught up to some of the doom and gloom we read about here.  I'm thinking many wanna-be investors are worried about their own future and have decided to put off trying to do REI until economic signs are better.
I thank God I have a steady job and know I don't have to worry about the next paycheck.  I'm going to be buying like crazy.  I'm finally starting to see some price drops in my target market.  Houses I was considering before are being priced even better.  $25K houses are dropping by $7-10K.  I'm wondering if people are desperate to sell because the houses have sat on the MLS too long or if some of these people are running out of money and trying to sell before foreclosure hits.
Seems the time I really see the board slow down is on the weekends.  I generally check things here a few times per day now while I'm away from home.  Once I get back, I expect that will decrease some.  Seems like for the most part we still see the same active familiar faces posting here.

I appreciate everyone's great feedback and input to all the questions posted here.
Thanks for creating the new forum!  It helps keep the other forums on topic.

[propertymanager]

I think you're seeing a decrease in real estate related traffic for a couple of reasons.  First, the economy is actually crashing as is evidenced by the 7.4 TRILLION dollars the government is spending to keep it from collapsing.  People are (or should be) concerned about their financial safety and aren't spending money on new ventures.    Secondly, we're at Thanksgiving and things slow to a crawl as the holidays approach.  I believe that accounts for the dramatic increase in spam that we're seeing.  The people who were successful with the various scams in a better environment are now being forced to work harder to make money - thus the increase in spam.

Additionally, the flipping craze is over.  It was never really more than a fad and who are you going to flip property to in this market?  The days of buying a property in California at the market price and selling it for a huge profit a couple of months later are over!

Mike

[fdjake]

All the doom and gloomers were RIGHT!!!!!

It's awful hard to buy an asset like Real Estate in a DEPRECIATING enviroment.   Let's face it.....Last years 50% discount is this years MARKET VALUE!!!!

Real Estate requires constant up keep, never ending tenant issues, ultility payments, property taxes, on top of that, we now have ever increasing ANTI- LANDLORD legislation, and on and on....Personally, I have all but STOPPED buying in this market.  I believe we are at a HISTORIC turning point in the early stages of a DEFLATIONARY DEPRESSION.  EVERY asset class is losing value this will continue for a LOT LONGER than the "EXPERTS" think.

IN this type of event you play the KEEP WHAT YOU ALREADY HAVE GAME, not the aquire more DEBT game.

I've been short the OIL and Stock markets since summer.  It has been VERY profitable.   

The next BIG move???????

G O L D!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

China is seeing HUNDREDS of it's factories CLOSING.  MILLIONS of their people are now facing UNEMPLOYMENT for the first time in HISTORY.  Remember...the majority of China's population were subsistance farmers...When you pull those people off the farm, and PAVE IT OVER to build a factory, it's awful hard to tell them to go back to growing rice.
China has been OUR RICH UNCLE.....We have acted like drunken TEENAGERS with that Uncles MONEY......Our Uncle's IMMEDIATE FAMILY is now hurting....China will become net SELLERS of our paper INSTEAD of BUYERS....Once that starts the DOLLAR is going to TANK.
Then the WORLD will want ANYTHING that retains value....

G O L D

G O L D

G O L D

Peter Schiff has been dead ON in his predictions for this financial BUST.....He's calling for Gold to hit $2000/ounce next year..

YOUTUBE this......

Peter Schiff was right.

Watch it.

[sunnyskyinvestor]

FD -- I enjoy your posts. But I have questions with gold  -- would this be a bubble? How can it be used for commerce? You can't buy a house or live in a house with gold. If you can't trade it our use it, I don't understand how it can have real, lasting value in our economy -- we'd still need cash to do anything or we'll be back in the middle ages (I hope that's not where we're going). There are so many wealthy people that would have to convert to or back their cash with gold but I guess that is what would drive the price higher. 

I just don't see high gold value would last or be usable given that we'd have to convert our mass quantities of cash into gold. Would there even be enough gold??? Maybe I'm thinking too hard about this...

 

[Roger J]

First, I'm talking about the steady decline in volume over the last several months (probably a year, actually), not just the drop in traffic due to a holiday.  Heck, weekends themselves are funny here, as people who claim to want to be an investor don't show up on the weekends.  So this isn't about a short time drop in traffic.

Second, not harping on all the D&G, Jake, just making a point that is about ALL that has been discussed (besides stocks, I'll get to that in a minute) on this board for months.  Regardless of it's truth or not, most people don't like to be constantly bashed in the head with negative news, hence the possible drop in users.

Third point is stocks.  That is the main focus of this, supposedly RE investing website (IMO), now.  This post is a prime example.  It has already been hijacked with stock investing advice (no offense Jake).  Again, not trying to push any buttons on anyone here, just pointing out some things I noticed.  So, does anyone else have theories, or am I just crazy?

Raj

[fdjake]

Your right on a lot of those points.  But...........

You could have said the same thing about OIL last summer.  Other than burning Gas in your car what can you do with OIL???  I mean PERSONALLY do with it???  That didn't stop all those people you talked about with all that money from chasing OIL up to $147/barrel??  Then what happened???  Just like EVERY SINGLE ASSET BUBBLE.......IT COLLAPSED.

We're running out of things to put money in.  ask yourself a simple question.......Do you think the business climate in this country is getting BETTER or getting WORSE???  If WORSE is the answer....show me how stocks are UNDER PRICED????  Just like the BATTLES we had here 2 years ago about whether real estate would  COLLAPSE (it DID)  Now people are arguing over whether stocks are cheap (they're NOT) 
The BEST part of this whole mess?????

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE is about to join the party....IN A BIG WAY!!!

What I see happening is simple........OUR GOVERMENT is spending MONEY it does not have......They are printing money at a rate NEVER BEFORE SEEN.......THAT will have DIRE consequences for the US DOLLAR.

Right now the world is buying dollars because every other currency is a mess.  BUT......over time, well run Goverments in other countries will stop buying our crap currency....this will lead to SAFE HAVEN buying of GOLD.

This is all my opinion......I CAN NOT see a scenerio where gold DOESN'T become a safe haven hedge for what we have coming.  The best part about this theory is once the move starts in GOLD.....all the RICH PEOPLE you mentioned won't be able to buy it fast enough.  This will look EXACTLY like the OIL markets did last summer.  We got sold a boat load of BS on that event....We were told it was all DEMAND driven.....THAT WAS AN OUT RIGHT LIE!!!  We now know it was ALL SPECULATION by (NOW FAILING) Hedge Funds that were LONG OIL.
Once the demand situation looked like it didn't make sense THEY ALL HEADED FOR THE DOORS!!

When they head for GOLD WATCH OUT...The moves in that metal will blow your mind.....The reasons can be argued....but the results will be clear.

Roger,

I don't think being warned CORRECTLY about an upcoming economic disaster (real estate collapse) would have ANYONE leaving this site.  In reality it would bring MORE PEOPLE TO IT!!!!  Correct economic forecasting is a rare commodity these days.  From what I've read here, some of our members have been right when the experts were dead WRONG!!

As far as stocks go.......Roger.....come on.....these people are INVESTORS, whether it's stocks, real estate, precious metals....These people want to put their money in assets that APPRECIATE...Real Estate is NOT doing that now.  This market continues to fall, and as JOB LOSSES increase, even LANDLORDS here are going to feel the pain.  With that in mind, why WOULDN'T you expand your investment TOOL BOX????   It's times like these that create KNOWLEDGE for people that can be used OVER and OVER throughout their lives. 

Think about this......How many people do you know understand that you can make money in stocks WHEN PRICES ARE FALLING?????  Personally, I have found that the MAJORITY have absolutely NO IDEA!!!!  These things are TOOLS, you don't use one tool for every job.  But having the right tool, at the right time, can make your life MUCH EASIER.
I think it's a testament to the resourcefullness of the readers here that when the market for Real Estate continues to decline, they find OTHER methods to build WEALTH.....In the end, that IS what we're all DOING!!!!

[Roger J]

Jake,

None of what you're saying is being questioned, hence the "not trying to push anybody's buttons" remark in my last post.  I'm just pointing out that:

A) There seems to be a mass dropoff in the volume of users and/or posts within the last several months or so, and

B) That during that time period, the focus of the site has shifted from RE to stocks with a strong emphasis on the negative nature of the RE markets right now.

I'm not making a point either way on the good or bad of it, just pointing out the facts.

However, that said, I will respond to you on the following:
I don't think being warned CORRECTLY about an upcoming economic disaster (real estate collapse) would have ANYONE leaving this site.  In reality it would bring MORE PEOPLE TO IT!!!! 

You'd think that would be the case, but it doesn't seem so from the amount of new posts (or lack thereof) does it?
My initial thoughts on this are that, as I stated, most people do not like to hear constantly negative talk, regardless of how true it is, or may be.  Also, again IMO, people may be coming here to learn HOW to invest in a bad market vs. just hearing that the market is bad.  Just my thoughts.

As to stocks on this website.  Yes, some people here are RE investors. Some have experience in stocks, some don't.  Most here are new investors are wanting to be investors that are coming here to learn how to do RE investing.  If the answer to "how" is don't do it now, then fine, but it's a least an answer to RE investing.

You and Rookie and others have both said on several occassions that stocks aren't for everybody and that you must be "playing" with money that you can afford to lose.  That, in my guess, would leave out about 90% of the people that visit this site on a regular basis.  So, if that's the case, who are the posts that are promoting stocks and stock trading for?

And again, this has nothing to do with whether they should invest in RE or stocks.  The point is this is a RE investing site.  If people coming here aren't interesting in the stock market, or have grown tired of the posts concerning such, could be A reason for the dropoff.

And once again, I didn't post this to start a debate on whether stocks or RE is better, worse, same or different.  I've noticed a tread in this site (an effect, if you will).  My post is asking a) has anyone else noticed (or apparently, even cares) and b) if so, do you have theories on the CAUSE of that effect?

Raj

[$Cash$]

Well guess what, a while ago I emailed the owner of this site (TR) and said the forums are being cluttered with non real estate investing posts.

My suggestion was to have a new forum called Random Ramblings, where all the puts, calls and bashing politicians could go so the original theme of this site could continue on without interruption.

Now as far as the decline in posters, this is prevalent on all real estate discussion boards at this time, so having the world is ending discussions hardly help advise or advance those who want to enter this great industry.

I personally am a professional creative real estate investor and have been for around 15 years now, I still am buying and selling houses, (Raj, just did one in Bostic (Nowhere) NC, purchased and sold in two weeks to a person living in Wyoming) so still shaking my head trying to figure out when the decline in the housing market is going to happen from what I am reading, please inform when this happens?  Actually you do not have to, because I will still be buying and selling houses creatively.

Happy Ramblings,

John $Cash$ Locke

[fdjake]

I understand your points and agree with them.

I guess what we're seeing is the credit markets finally hitting Main St.

Getting buyers financed is extremely difficult these days.  I also would add that in an enviroment where people feel lucky just to HAVE A JOB, Real Estate investing, with it's YEARS of monthly payments may not be high on a list of things they want to get into.

I know the Pro Real Estate investors in my area have slowed their buying ENORMOUSLY.  The ones that own rental property aren't even  getting bites from dead beats.  

I'm not arguing your points at all Roger...Your right, there HAS been a big time drop off in posting...But...When Real Estate investing is so popular we have half a dozen TV SHOWS about it.......THE END HAD TO BE NEAR!!!

I post about the stock market now because in all honesty, making money in this market has NOT been hard.  We're going into a BRUTAL Recession here...EVERYTHING we know is being RE-VALUED.  I try to show people that there is tremendous OPPORTUNITY in that.  You DO NOT need to start with $20,000. In fact, I would say LEARNING how to invest in the stock market could be LESS RISKY than buying an investment property with a mortgage during an economic cycle that WILL SEE MILLIONS of people losing their jobs.

It's KNOWLEDGE.....You can believe what you want...If you believe that the guy's on Wall St. who bought up all that crappy mortgage debt are smarter than YOU......YOUR WRONG!!!   I can tell you without DOUBT that YOU are a LOT smarter than many of the "experts" on Wall St.
People are conditioned by MULTI MILLION DOLLAR AD Campaigns that "Investing in Stocks" is some type of Voodoo.

Happy Thanksgiving Roger

[Roger J]

Now, we're getting somewhere.

I do like the random ramblings section.  RE everytime, all the time can become a drag.

Now, that we've hit on a point that all RE forums are suffering from a drop in users, the next question is what does that mean for the forums?

Is it as simple as keep on with the same ol', same ol', or are the forums going to have to change in order to remain viable?

Seems to me, the people that do consistently continue to hit the sites are people with at least some experience in RE investing, at least, for the most part.

Both of you make good points about making money in THIS market, which we all know is possible.  How do you get that across to the newbies visiting here, or do you, since it's experience that makes you the money in this market?

More thoughts?

Happy Thanksgiving to you, Jake and everyone else.

Raj

[justin0419]

I think we still have lots of lurkers here who absorb what they can and just don't really post much at all. 
I definitely think there's something to be said for contrarian investing.  We here fdjake talking all the time about going against the herd.  There are deals to be had now & prices are dropping.  The news just wants to report about declines in home sales and prices.  If you're a buy & hold investor, what better time to start snapping things up? 
I think Propertymanager has been posting for a long time how to make money long term in any market.  I have many co-workers who are currently becoming "unsuspecting" landlords.  These people bought in at or near the peak because "everyone else is doing it, why shouldn't I."  Seeing as how the military doesn't generally leave people in the same location for more than a few years, all these people are now transferring across the country and finding out they can't sell without taking a HUGE loss.  So now I hear conversations all the time about how if they rent for $X, they'll "only" have to shell out $500 a month to cover the mortgage since the rent won't cover it.  So buy right or don't buy at all should be the lesson learned from that. 
The people in this market who are going to be able to take action and make money are the ones who have their own finances in check and have good income from a stable job.  If it takes the harsh truth to tell a newbie they need to buckle down and bring their credit score up & save cash to show the bank they can do deals, then that's a valuable lesson. 
Those of us that are currently doing REI will still have questions or funny stories from time to time.  We'll still have posts.  Now if we could just block anyone's acct. who wants to post about Viagra or Cialis...
Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving!!

[furnishedowner]

Raj,
I too noticed the drop off in posts.

I can't believe I am saying this, but maybe therefore I have started enjoying  Rookie's, PM's, fdjake's, liquidity's, and others postings about the Stock Market.

It is the first time in my life that my eyes haven't glazed over and breathing slowed down when I heard the words "STOCK MARKET". I am learning stuff.  I could invest!  Someday! It no longer seems as boring as watching golf on TV!

So thanks for the interesting back-and-forth dueling posts. You guys have been great in writing. Your excitement has made for some very good reading. My eyes have quit rolling back into my head.

FurnishedOwner

[j1dias]

I also noticed a drop in posts. And it seems that there are fewer people coming in and asking I don't have any money or credit and I want to become a millionaire...

I also noticed that the number of posts of people asking board members to evaluate deals has almost vanished. It tells me that very few people are actuall looking or the ones that are actively looking are experienced enough to evaluate their own deals.

The funny thing is that I miss some of the folks that used to post here. For example, the guy that was traveling through Colombia or some other country. Anyone knows what ever happened with him? I thought his posts were very entertaining. :O)

In regards to the stock market posts - I don't come here to read about the stock market. It doesn't excite me. I do agree with fdjake that one can make a lot of money on the stock market. However somehow it doesn't excite me. I guess I am at a point in my investing career that I want to focus all my attention/resources in learning/investing in real estate. In the end of the day, I get more excited in evaluating a real estate transaction than a stock pick.

And by the way, Cash, I thought it was a great idea to create the Random Ramblings area. Thank you.

[Roger J]

First let me say, that I did not post this saying that because of the things listed is the reason that there was a drop in posts.  All I meant by my questions as that a) there has been a drop in posts and b) that drop came about the same time as 1) the RE crash 2) the D&G posts and 3) the stock market posts.  I'm not saying that ANY of them caused it or that ALL of them caused it.  I was merely trying to point out that there WAS an effect (the drop in posts), could any of those (or all of those) be the cause(s)?  The drop in posts IS the cause. That's happened.  The question is WHY?  What caused it and how does it affect the site?

My answer to that is that to some extent or the other, ALL of the above caused the drop.  The RE crash is probably the single major cause.  This market will have several RE related businesses, like guru book sells and RE related websites, changing their focus, IMO, as there simply will not be alot of newbies trying to get into the business as it can no longer be sold as a "get rich quick" type thing.

That said, I also believe that all the D&G talk that has been going on (whether warranted or not) probably led to a decline as well.  Truth is, people don't like negative talk, no matter how much it is needed.  Hey, I'm VERY realistic about RE investing in my posts.  So much in fact, that Jake and PM could both be talking about the impending economic collapse of the United States and I would be the one that was NEGATIVE because I thought their RE investing plan wasn't good 

The point is, too much of a bad thing and people will just tune out.  And alot of those posts were all bad with no silver lining attached, IMO (no it'll get better, or you can do it with way, etc.).  Again, my opinion only.

All the president posts and stock market posts were a lesser cause, but to be frank, until the 'Random Ramblings' section was created, the Beginner's Forum looked like a political stock market website.

A love the RR section, because you CAN'T talk RE everytime, all the time.  Not only is listing other investing methods good (shows diversity), but websites like these do become a community group (a 'special' facebook, if you will).  It's good to have a place to "just shoot the breeze."

Raj