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Topic: Currency Devaluation and its Impact On Real Estate (Read 3250 times)
fdjake
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Re: Currency Devaluation and its Impact On Real Estate
«
Reply #15 on:
May 29, 2009, 01:20:31 PM »
I don't think I said we WOULDN'T have inflation..... I believe I said we WILL have it, but it will follow a DEFLATIONARY period. We could absolutley see the type of inflation that was around during the Carter days as you mentioned.
But..........That level of inflation is a FAR CRY from what Hooch was using as examples. I don't remember my father getting paid "3 TIMES A DAY" during the 70's as Hooch mentioned is his post. (I know he was using Germany as an example) Those events ALL took place around OUT RIGHT WAR or a COMPLETE COLLAPSE of central Goverment.
Another point to remember about a DEFLATIONARY event being followed by INFLATION is this.......If you own a home that you paid $300,000 for in 2006 and in 2009 that home is worth $200,000......Is it REALLY Inflation if the price of that home RISES to $250,000 at some point a few years out???? If you looked at this example on PAPER and used 2009 to 2011 as your bench mark it COULD look like housing INFLATED by a HUGE margin. The REALITY of it is.....The DEFLATIONARY event was so powerful that the ensuing inflation had almost no effect. A ZERO sum game.
As we said the other day......I don't see the THIEVES we have running the Goverment (on BOTH sides) letting this gravy train slip out of their hands. And WATCH.....If it gets to the point where it even LOOKS like it could......THEN and ONLY then....will you see these clowns come together to save their own @sses. Not OURS......THEIRS and the MACHINES!!!!
This in my opinion is THE ONLY reason TARP got passed. They were sat down and TOLD in no uncertain terms.....IF YOU DON'T APPROVE THIS....EVERY SINGLE ONE OF YOU WON'T BE HERE NEXT ELECTION!!
That's MY theory.....We WON'T get TRUE HYPER-INFLATION because that would be the complete undoing of the political system in this country. It worked out that way for almost EVERY example in Hooch's post. That level of inflation CRUSHES Goverments.
I'm not saying it COULD NOT happen.....But my money says it won't.
If you're interested, there's a REALLY eye opening book written about this very subject by Robert R. Prechter Jr. called "Conquer the Crash"
It was written in 2003 so everything that he expected to happen HAS happened. He's not a political person and the book takes no sides on that issue. This guy is considered an EXPERT in Elliot Wave Theory with regards to Stock price cycles.
I think you'd find the book fascinating.
Prechter calls for a DEFLATIONARY event, but on a very large scale. Once this is completed he does mention inflation at higher levels.
This is NO JOKE folks.......I heard a great quote the other day.....
2009 to 2010 will be the year that either MAKES YOU or BREAKS YOU!!!!
I agree.
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Last Edit: May 29, 2009, 01:59:20 PM by fdjake
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Hooch
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Re: Currency Devaluation and its Impact On Real Estate
«
Reply #16 on:
May 29, 2009, 03:08:59 PM »
"""But..........That level of inflation is a FAR CRY from what Hooch was using as examples."""
My example was based on Germany's hyperinflation which is a worst case scenario and a great demonstration of what investments failed and what profited tremendously. Experts predict our hyperinflation to be equivalent to that of Zimbabwe's which was around 50% inflation per month! Germany's was double that but Zimbabwe's is considered almost catastrophic.
"""I don't remember my father getting paid "3 TIMES A DAY" during the 70's as Hooch mentioned is his post. (I know he was using Germany as an example) Those events ALL took place around OUT RIGHT WAR or a COMPLETE COLLAPSE of central Goverment."""
As I said, my case study was Germany, not the US, and they lost the war and had to rebuild themselves. It would be interesting to study Zimbabwe. We are in OUT RIGHT WAR and our Government WILL completely collapse if they continue to act against the WILL of the people. The difference is that our infrastructure is not being attacked.
"""Another point to rememebr about a DEFLATIONARY event being followed by INFLATION is this.......If you own a home that you paid $300,000 for in 2006 and in 2009 that home is worth $200,000......Is it REALLY Inflation if the price of that home RISES to $250,000 at some point a few years out???? If you looked at this example on PAPER and used 2009 to 2011 as your bench mark it COULD look like housing INFLATED by a HUGE margin. The REALITY of it is.....The DEFLATIONARY event was so powerful that the ensuing inflation had almost no effect. A ZERO sum game."""
Nice, an inflation isn't real statement. Only from a liberal. How about the cost of goods and raw materials that will go through the roof in times of hyperinflation. Is that a Zero sum too? I don't think you understand hyperinflation clearly if you make a statement like this. This is what we are talking about, hyperinflation, not inflation. We are not talking about normal ebb and flow of the economy.
"""As we said the other day......I don't see the THIEVES we have running the Goverment (on BOTH sides) letting this gravy train slip out of their hands. """
Paying off China's debt with worthless dollars during a period of hyperinflation is a perfect example of what these "THIEVES" would do. And those who are on the inside and know for a fact that they are creating hyperinflation will become more wealthy than you can imagine. Just pretend that you are one of them and know for a fact that hyperinflation is the game plan. HOW could you NOT win?
"""And WATCH.....If it gets to the point where it even LOOKS like it could......THEN and ONLY then....will you see these clowns come together to save their own @sses. Not OURS......THEIRS and the MACHINES!!!!"""
You keep missing the point, it is intentionally planned. As I said time and time again, everyone knows what happens when you print boatloads of money out of thin air which is exactly what they are doing. Do you actually think they are that STUPID?
"""That's MY theory.....We WON'T get TRUE HYPER-INFLATION because that would be the complete undoing of the political system in this country. It worked out that way for almost EVERY example in Hooch's post. That level of inflation CRUSHES Goverments."""
I disagree. I think their plans are for "managed" hyperinflation to eliminate our debt. I am not saying it can be "managed". I am saying that the Federal Government thinks they are capable of doing so. China apparently thinks that is what they are doing as well.
One thing I do know is that they do not care what happens to the average Joe. Creating hyperinflation will be creating a new "gravy train" for themselves. Whenever one profits, another must fail. For those to profit significantly, others must fail miserably. Originally the entire bailout was to help the people, from the bottom up. I would love to hear examples of people you know that have been helped. Those who kept their house from foreclosure with bailout money. Actually, I would be interested in hearing about even one person.
The focus is in their pockets. They speak to the public and do a completely different thing. They position their thievery in a way that makes the "sheep" feel that they are screwing them in their best interest.
As long as they don't suffer, it doesn't matter. The "sheep" say, that's my guy, he's going to help me. My local congressman is the good guy. He is looking out for me. It's the other clowns that are running things into the ground. Not My Guy!
The Politician says to his constituents, "gosh darnet!,, things are going to "change"! We need this and we need that and I am going to fight for you. It's about time we clean up Washington."
The Sheep say I Baaaa leeeeeve you while his pockets fatten and nothing ever happens. When it does happen, the big wonderful new plan ends up benefiting those who paid for their election and screwing the people. It all looks great on the surface though
"""I'm not saying it COULD NOT happen.....But my money says it won't."""
I stopped putting my money on the dirty bastards a long time ago.
"""Prechter calls for a DEFLATIONARY event.... He's a BIG GOLD and CASH guy."""
Gold will preserve your wealth through hyperinflation as well but you are out of luck on the cash and you will loose every thing you have worked for.
"""Getting this RIGHT is very important....If you make the wrong bet here it can CRUSH you."""
I agree that getting it right is very important but those who are aware of what could be coming and prepared to make changes upon the drop of a hat with all of the right signs will succeed. I am not telling people to go borrow up to their eyeballs right now unless they have a good loan to value ratio. On real estate it is wise to borrow no more than 60% loan to value ratio. I also researched the Great Depression a while back and it's impact on real estate and found that only 1-2% of the people lost their homes and the average loan to value ratio was 60%. I was unable to find specific information on real estate investors but the assumption is that 60% is pretty safe even within the worst economic conditions. I am also assuming that the 1-2% did not consist primarily of investors and I think that is a pretty safe assumption.
Those who are able to borrow massive amounts of money now but still maintain a good loan to value ratio on each property will benefit the most. If you have a good LTV you will be safe from whatever happens. I don't expect houses to deflate much more as fdjake does. We're pretty close to the bottom and if not the mass printing of money will force us off the bottom via inflation.
During the initial stages of hyperinflation is when it's a good time to borrow to your eyeballs,but I would not suggest doing it prior to hyperinflation because if I'm wrong, you're screwed. I am just pointing out all of the signs that I see and there are MANY. We are still in a minor deflationary period and it takes a few short years for inflation to kick in after the mass printing of cash. The printing presses are still running at maximum speed. I'm looking down the road guys and those of you who keep your eyes open will know what to do when it gets here instead of missing the boat.
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