FORD - When should I sell? (divorce)

[dr_white]

Currently, my Ford stock has a 100%+ gain. I want to ride this puppy all the way into the $20's. However, with my divorce (see my $19,071 thread in the beginner's forum), I am very close to needing to sell all my Ford stock to survive this coming year.
Basically, I have two options: 1) sell the Ford stock and pay off the ex's portion of marital division of assets - and buy some food, or 2) Keep my Ford stock, let it go higher, and tell the ex that she is just going to have to wait till I have the money.

All things considering *cough*the #$&#$**#$^&! ex*cough*, I am heavily contemplating the 2nd option.  If Ford stock tanks, though, that could put me at a very nasty predicament.

What are peoples' thoughts? i.e. stock predictions for Ford?

[furnishedowner]

I don't know stock predictions, but if it were me, I would simplify my life.  Pay off those obligations.  Reduce the stress.  Start fresh.
Good luck, at least your problems aren't as big as Tiger Woods'.

Furnishedowner

[Hoosier4life2005]

I ACTUALLY AGREE WITH FO FOR ONCE!!!

Ide just sell and get on with your life.  Its not worth risking Ford tanking and having to deal with your ex.  Theres always going to be other deals out there, just get the next deal.  Thats my opinion.

[allagash]

Good luck, at least your problems aren't as big as Tiger Woods'.

That's gotta affect your putting game.

-Mike

[fdjake]

Whenever you're in a position like yours you do ONE THING.....

S E L L  !!!!

Think your stressed now?????

Imagine how you'd feel if this MARKET drops back to say 8000 and takes Ford to $6 with it???

This is a very real possibility...My money is on Ford for the long haul, the company (as predicted) is the strongest U.S. car company, they have the best product mix (which will get even BETTER over the next 2 -3 years) and the new contract they have with the UAW will start paying off in spades during the upcoming years.  Add in the cyclical factors and it's a winner long haul....BIG TIME.

Unfortunately for you at this time....You're not in a position to SPECULATE.

[dr_white]

I think I found the best solution for my Ford stock. I'll just set a trailing stop loss on it. I'll keep it about 20 or 30 cents below the daily market top and keep increasing it as the stock goes up. When it starts heading down, I'll stop adjusting let it hit that stop loss point and call it good.

Unfortunate is definately the word for all this. I was hoping to keep the stock for another 9-15 years depending on when the next down cycle hits, adding to it along the dips. *mutter* Stupid, greedy, selfish ex-spouses!! 

[fdjake]

This is the latest news from FORD and it VERY, VERY GOOD!!!! (The stock just broke $10.00 this morning)

http://www.autoblog.com/2009/12/22/ford-brags-about-largest-residual-value-increase-in-industry/

This is what happens when a company is about to make the jump from a "HAS BEEN" to a GLOBAL LEADER in the automotive world.  CUSTOMERS recognize the VALUE in the product and VOTE with their WALLETS.  Residual values INCREASE because DEMAND for these vehicles INCREASES, which pulls the value of even USED FORDS up.....Increasing value means Fords plans are working to perfection.  Americans are BUYING Fords because the word is spreading that these cars are INCREDIBLE values, have quality BETTER than the japanese, and have styling that BRINGS IN BUYERS....

Remember what you have been taught here.  Learning how to spot these shifts in consumer perception is PRICELESS when it comes to investing.
Once again.....The reason I LOVE investing in car companies during recessions is simple.....Car companies release PICTURES of upcoming models YEARS in advance.  They lay out product plans years in advance, they hire new CEO's from other companies like BOEING and you can research that person's track record....It's all there for the taking....

You just have to WATCH and REMEMBER. 

Do you think this is the LAST TIME a car company will get in trouble?????

It WON'T BE......Maybe you can USE this knowledge YEARS from now to BUILD WEALTH for you and your family.

Now we have Ford as the only domestic car company GROWING, Residual values are up, sales are UP,  BILLIONAIRE George Soros just purchased $72,000,000 worth of Ford stock, and consumer reports lists FORD as having BETTER quality than Honda or Toyota.  It's all right there.....AS PREDICTED and now the stock is $10.00 /share.  Over the next 2 years Ford has product coming on line that will BLOW YOUR MINDS....What do you think THAT will do for sales???

[John_in_NC]

Well I took your advice FDJake and bought 100K worth of ford, back in Jan. Too bad it wasn't real money. Too Bad I don't have the guts even now to do this with 1K.

http://top10traders.com/viewportfolio.aspx?userID=7046

I have been buying silver eagles. Something about tangible investments keep the fear away.

[fdjake]

I give you credit John.....It's not something you're comfortable with so you did the intelligent thing and TRACKED IT,  without putting REAL MONEY into it.  That's actually a very good strategy....By simply WATCHING what happens here,  you are laying the ground work for future possible investments with REAL MONEY....

People WATCH these recessionary patterns occur OVER and OVER through their life times.  The smart ones catch on and eventually decide they CAN'T AFFORD TO SIT IT OUT anymore!!!

This isn't rocket science folks....During recessions car companies LOSE MONEY .....During RECOVERIES  (which believe it or not, we WILL eventually have) car companies PRINT MONEY!!!!   NO JOBS= NO CAR SALES........JOBS START TO COME BACK= SO DO THE CAR BUYERS!!!   This has happened.......Since there have been CARS!!!  80+ years of history here people......IT NEVER FAILS!!!!

The Wall Street money managers would LOVE to convince you this is FAR TOO complicated for your little minds to understand......THAT'S UTTER BULLSH*T........It's as hard as you want to make it!!!!

John hit it right on the head...."I don't have the guts even now to do it."  In other words.....The BILLION$  Wall St. spends ever single year CONVINCING people like JOHN,  that he CAN'T do this.......IS WORKING!!!! 
It's the BEST MONEY these firms spend all YEAR.  The last thing they want is for the PUBLIC to INVEST for THEMSELVES.

John.......Do you BUY YOUR PROPERTIES the way 99% of Americans do?????
NOT IN A MILLION YEARS.......The "experts"  (realtors)  don't want the majority of people to do things the way YOU do....They want people to BELIEVE that "THEY" are the EXPERTS,  and buyers NEED them to understand this COMPLICATED real estate INVESTING........WE ALL KNOW IT's all BULLSH*T.  Just look at what a REALTOR considers a POSITIVE CASH FLOWING PROPERTY ....They screw this up EVERYTIME....They have NO CLUE what REAL positive cash flow is.....Because THEY DON'T CARE.....They get PAID whether that PIG cash flows or BLOWS!!!!  REAL INVESTORS don't find their home run properties by asking REALTORS.  Just like REAL stock investors don't ask STOCK BROKERS for investment advice.
WHY do you see THIS investment any differently????.....It's about buying an ASSET when NO ONE ELSE wants it.......When it's UNDER VALUED!!!

What eventually happens to intelligent people like John is simple.
He'll watch this pattern repeat it's self a few times until it hits him.....

I'VE SEEN THIS MOVIE............3 or 4 times now........I KNOW HOW IT ENDS!!!

That's all I'm attempting to do here......Get you to........

THINK.....THINK.....THINK!!!!!!

[Hoosier4life2005]

Im listening to Jake on his next big ole' prediction!  Luckily I never had much money to invest, so it makes it easy for me not feel bad about missing out on Ford.

When you have a new prediction Jake, SHARE!  Do you prefer to stick with car companys when it comes to stock trading or do you trade all stock?

[fdjake]

I try to stick with stuff I understand......The one lesson I've learned about MY ability as an investor in stocks is deceptively simple......

Knowing when to do NOTHING is as important as knowing when to do something.

You can't play this game everyday and win everyday......So what I do is CHOOSE when to play and I don't play very often........I'll go YEARS with my money in boring utility stocks that pay boring dividends....BUT those boring stocks keep your powder dry for the cyclical stuff that pokes it's head out in EVERY RECESSION.....When that stuff pops up you go in......and you go in.........H E A V Y

[justin0419]

Following the logic about pent up demand for new cars because of a recession, there should also be a correlation with auto parts stocks rising during the recession as people try to nurse their cars along. 

[fdjake]

EXACTLY RIGHT..........BUT........Those stocks have already experienced HUGE run ups.....Look at Autozone stock since 2006.  $78.00 in '06 to $159 last week.

Your observation could make you a PILE of money in the future...

Once you recognize a looming recession, BUY those auto parts retailers because your scenario is EXACTLY what happens everytime!!!

The car companies DROP while the PARTS companies rise......You just have to make sure you pick the RIGHT parts companies, just like picking the right car company!

[justin0419]

True.  I looked at Autozone last night to confirm that.  It's probably late to get into that now as you say, but it's a learning point for the future. 

[yrush2000]

such a simple solution to a messy divorce.  It is $10 a crackhead. 

now on the serious side, have some very wealthy friends (net worth over 10mil) and some are single and dating. One is getting married soon and not even doing a per-nup.  I asked him if he was nuts with all his money (his paid off home is worth over 8mil) and his business is striving still.  He informed me he actually owns nothing so in case of a divorce she would get very little.  Everything he has is kept in trust funds and the corporations are owned by the trust funds and profit and not for profit charities.  His income and spendings come from these things and he pays himself a very small salary that would not cover his monthly electric bill probably.    He informed me, he is 100% protected in the event of a divorce and she has NO CLUE how his holdings and business is set up.