Gerald Celente Predicts GREATEST DEPRESSION starting in 2010!

[propertymanager]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_ahFTYeif0

It makes a LOT of sense!  I'm still a little unclear about the timing as the government will do EVERYTHING to prevent the inevitable.  So, while I agree with the conclusion, I'm not sure about the timing.  I agree with all of the facts that lead to his conclusion.  America is destined to be a third rate country - unless we wake up and take our country back!

[fdjake]

This is old news.......Celente is starting to look like a bit of a joke here.

Banking in the U.S. by late 2009.......  RECORD PROFITS....Gerry missed that one. BY A MILE!!! I know, I know, it's based on the goverment loaning them money at zero interest.....BUT....The PROFITS ARE REAL....and those profits KEPT OUR BANKING SYSTEM INTACT!!!!    Compare 2010 to early 2009.....HUGE IMPROVEMENT.....Business lines of credit are FUNCTIONING.  People can BUY CARS and HOUSES again....I remember late 2008 when car dealers were SHUT DOWN due to NO FINANCING or LEASING available....HUGE, HUGE IMPROVEMENT THERE......FACT.....Not BS. 

REAL ESTATE PRICES.........ACTUALLY RISING!!!    and IN NEW ENGLAND too!!!!.....This is a FACT.....NO BS....NO games.....I BUY & SELL THESE HOUSES.....PRICES ARE UP.....and so is DEMAND from year ago levels.  2008 and early '09.. I would rehab a home and list it UNDER the area comps....It would sell but it took MONTHS even at the best price in the neighborhood and I'd go through 5 people before I could find ONE that could get financing.    This year EVERY house I have finished has had MULTIPLE OFFERS and sold OVER asking....EVERY SINGLE ONE.   But THAT'S WHAT HAPPENS when prices fall by 50%!!!   It gets to a point were people can BUY for LESS than they can RENT!!!   IMAGINE....BUYING a HOME you can actually AFFORD!!!!   CRAZY, SCARY, WACKO TALK!!!!

Americans, including folks RIGHT HERE, have INCREDIBLY short memories....Remember late 2008 when the front page of the Financial papers had the story about the MILLIONAIRE with a $900,000 DOWN PAYMENT that couldn't get a $600,000 mortgage on a house in CT because NO BANK would do a JUMBO???  That is PANIC folks.....And CELENTE did a LOT of TV interviews during this time....The PANIC is GONE.....But GERRY is still SELLING his version of reality....The problem is......IT'S NO LONGER REALITY!!!   Jumbo mortgages are ALIVE and well again...Sure you need a JOB, good credit and a down payment.....You know.....NORMAL REQUIREMENTS!!!!
THAT SAYS IT ALL FOLKS..........

Here's some more DATA.....

Unemployment....DOWN....It has DROPPED EVERY SINGLE MONTH since January 2009.

CAR SALES UP..........Ford ALONE is up 25% over 2008 levels....2010 will be better.   Car sales hit BOTTOM in 2008 at 9 million new cars.....Down from a 2005 high of 15+ million......2009 saw almost 11 million new cars purchased.  HUGE PENT UP DEMAND HERE.....HUGE!  Happens in EVER recession....Set your watch buy it.

These are FACTS.......I've yet to see the POLICE robbing citizens of their FOOD so cops families can EAT....(Another BRILLIANT Celente prediction)

Where are all the RIOTS?????   Haven't seen one yet....Unless we include the RACE to buy the new CALL TO DUTY video game this christmas.  Yep, Americans have their PRIORITIES alright.....BUY more computer games, and watch AMERICAN IDOL....

Mike....If you're waiting for AMERICANS to take back their country?????

GOOD LUCK WITH THAT.........Especially when YOU'RE the one telling us constantly what useless pieces of cr@p 90% of them are...I can just see all the TRAILER PARKS emptying out as REAL AMERICANS shut off JERRY SPRINGER and dive into ACTION saving our COUNTRY!!!!

Maybe you could start a FRENZY by telling all the section 8 renters that BRITTANY'S babies were kidnapped by Aliens and they must donate a portion of their monthly checks for the RANSOM....We could collect OUR MONEY back and then take back the country....

Sorry.......Business as USUAL in the USA......NO RIOTS,  NO TAKING BACK anything......Just another ECONOMIC CYCLE that people OVER REACT TO!!!!

A few more brilliant Celente forecasts......

40% INFLATION... N E X T  Y E A R!  I guess this is what will drive all those COPS into the streets to steal from citizens.

A BOYCOTT of CHINESE made products......

I almost fell on the floor LAUGHING when he said that......I can just see all the "3 teeth Walmart shoppers"  closely READING the origin labels inorder to BOYCOTT all their favorite FLAT SCREEN TV's and appliances made in CHINA......Yea....That's the ticket......Americans are going to STOP buying made in CHINA, WALMART products, and buy FREE WEIGHTS made in the good ole USA and start GETTING IN SHAPE!!!!!.....You know, so they can TAKE BACK OUR COUNTRY....

THANKS MIKE.......I LOVE starting the day off with a good LAUGH!!!!

[propertymanager]

Banking in the U.S. by late 2009.......  RECORD PROFITS....Gerry missed that one. BY A MILE!!! I know, I know, it's based on the goverment loaning them money at zero interest.....BUT....The PROFITS ARE REAL....and those profits KEPT OUR BANKING SYSTEM INTACT!!!!

C'mon FDJake, you know better than that.  The banks don't have profits - they have simply received the biggest transfer of wealth in history from the middle class.  ANYONE could make "record profits" if someone gave them money at ZERO PERCENT and them borrowed it back from them at 3%.  It's nothing more than theft from the middle class and our children's future.

The same is true for car companies and housing.  It's all a big joke.  The government GAVE them money through cash for clunkers and home-buyer credits - again money right out of our pockets (at least in the future).   

Where are all the RIOTS?????   Haven't seen one yet....Unless we include the RACE to buy the new CALL TO DUTY video game this christmas.  Yep, Americans have their PRIORITIES alright.....BUY more computer games, and watch AMERICAN IDOL....

There are no riots because America and Americans haven't paid the piper yet.   The government is still busy spending money created from thin air at the FED!  You can bury your head in the sand, but you are WRONG on the future.  Fortunately, there is no point arguing about it, if we have the biggest boom in history you will be right.  If the economy collapses, I'll be right.  Time will tell.   

[fdjake]

http://www.businessinsider.com/despite-the-clunker-hangover-americans-keep-binging-on-cars-2010-1

At some point you have to take a step back and REALLY look at the data....REALLY look at what is HAPPENING.

The BIG 3 here are.........

1) Unemployment rates that are dropping and have dropped every month since Jan 09.

2) Housing starts, and existing housing sales.....ALL UP.

3) Car sales......Up across the board from the 2008 lows.

These large ticket items MOVE ECONOMIES.....As real estate invesotrs we know better than ANYONE the economic impact of just ONE single family home sale....FURNITURE GETS PURCHASED, Carpenters are employed, plumbers, electricians, even if it's just a rehab many of these trades will at least be WORKING AGAIN...

Car sales are very similar......That car dealer EMPLOYESS PEOPLE, those people in turn BUY THINGS...As car sales INCREASE so do those employees spending.

The GOVERMENT intervention at some point will intersect with the economic activity increases those interventions helped stimulate....At that point these interventions should get pulled back as the economy comes back to life.  This isn't a Democratic or Republican effort, it's how the U.S. economy has been run since the depression.

In the end you're absolutely right Mike......It's gonna be your way or my way....There's no point in arguing because I sure as hell don't know for sure which way this ends up...It's all just opinion, judgement, and some experience mixed in......But it is interesting to throw these ideas and concepts out there for everyone to watch and see where the dust ultimately settles.

[propertymanager]

Did you SEE the chart in the article you posted.  It looks like the trend is DOWN!

[PositiveOutlook]

FDjake,

Interesting reply...  Some things to consider...

"REAL ESTATE PRICES.........ACTUALLY RISING!!! "

I just saw a report the other day that no major market has seen an increase in prices in 19 months...  Now, of course, it sounds like your local market is having some action from what you post, but the conditions in general don't seem to have changed... they just had another record month in foreclosures, so I don't see how this will help change anything...  hope you are right...

"Unemployment....DOWN....It has DROPPED EVERY SINGLE MONTH since January 2009."

This is kinda' a play on the numbers, but the base number you are talking started doing this BEFORE Obama did anything to "stimulate" the economy, and shows it was a cycle, and IMHO shows how the government sucking all the oxygen (i.e. - money) out of the private sector has had a NEGATIVE affect overall.  They were counting on the cycle when they said that the "stimulus" would STOP unemployment from rising above 8%... 


"Business lines of credit are FUNCTIONING.  People can BUY CARS and HOUSES again..."

Obama just had a meeting in December with the large banks to try to get them to start lending again...  I know small business people, as I am sure you do, and they cannot get the credit flowing to them, and they are readily concerned about what the government is going to do via healthcare and other taxation, so they are taking a wait and see approach and not hiring but getting by with the staff they have...

As far as people being able to buy houses again...  I see reports on both sides...  I think the spring market will show us where this is heading...  

"Banking in the U.S. by late 2009.......  RECORD PROFITS..."

Borrowing at near-zero rates and lending us back our own borrowed money, they BETTER see profits...  Now overall, they STILL have the "toxic" assets on the books and made a profit on us using our BORROWED money...  So all these companies and banks who received TARP money, saw RECORD profits AND bonuses during the "worst economy since the depression"....  and now the Fed has begun talking raised interest rates...  a duel-edged sword based on their strategy...

On top of this, the banks and credit card companies are set to impose ALL SORTS of fun new fee schemes to increase these profits even more....  zero-grace periods (interest accrues from point of purchase), $1 fees for each page for statements, increased overdraft fees, etc...

Is there any question that this was one big money (companies and banks) and power (government) grab???

[fdjake]

Of coarse the TREND is down......The chart includes data from a time when U.S. car sales were at NEVER BEFORE SEEN highs.....The trend is the trend until the trend CHANGES......When you hit 8 million in car sales down from 15 million, then move up to 9 million then on to 10 million....Yea....that's a trend....a down trend FOLLOWED by an UP TREND.

As far as HOUSING DATA.....Almost ALL the housing DATA we saw in 2006 and 2007 was provided by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS as it is NOW....These idiots were telling us THEN that MAYBE, MAYBE we'd see a 10% correction in the market and THAT would STIMULATE SALES...How'd that work out????

NO MAJOR market saw increases.......I guess that's valuable data.....If I was buying properties in NEW YORK CITY.   MAJOR markets don't concern me.....MY MARKET concerns me, and in MY MARKET things are getting VERY INTERESTING.

Here's all the data I need to see.......Last month I sold 3 houses.....Each one OVER ASKING with MULTIPLE OFFERS and everyone of them sold to the original buyer with no issues on financing.  They all had to have 2 APPRAISALS as per new regulations....The BUYERS had to have a DOWN PAYMENT...they needed GOOD CREDIT....In other words.....NORMAL BUYERS!!!  Every single EXPERIENCED investor I know in this area is experiencing the EXACT same thing....Properties are GONE when they are fully rehabbed and/or properly priced......The uptick is STRONG here.  I have also seen a HUGE increase in calls from INVESTORS actively LOOKING for properties here....It's the same story....."Call me with anything you get.....I just sold my last rehab in 5 days."

Unemployment has just reached a 17 month LOW according to reuters.

I'm a small business person......I have NO PROBLEM getting credit here...NONE......I just had a $500,000 line of credit opened at a local bank.  My fellow investors here (with TRACK RECORDS) report the same...It's about building RELATIONSHIPS with LOCAL banks....During the good times and ESPECIALLY the BAD.....Don't tell me about some newspaper story you read about BANKING.....Tell me what happens when you sell your rehab properties and deposit those checks into your LOCAL bank along with the spread sheets on your costs and profits.
Tell me what happens when the banker see's your profits, tell me what he says when you tell him that you're already in the rehab business and have years of experience, and how you found, fixed and SOLD your properties.  Tell me about THAT meeting.
 

[PositiveOutlook]

FDjake,

I've no doubt that you have a relationship with your banker.  Small businesses with employees are different than individual investors...  the credit needs are different altogether...

Like I said, it sounds like you are doing well locally, so I don't doubt that other investors in your area are doing well also... I was referring to sales in the major markets which are more of a forecast nationally...  individual markets doing well are not the same barometer as major markets...

I'd be curious if any other investors on here are having the same results as your local market...  that would be great to hear...

"Don't tell me about some newspaper story you read about BANKING...."

I wasn't...  I was referring to small business owners I know...  Their lines were cut-off or dramatically reduced, and they have not been able to change it since.  Add to it all the political drama, and what I am hearing is that they will wait to see what rolls out...  The ones whose lines weren't cut, aren't using them... They are doing what they can with the operating cash...  they are still in survival or status quo mode, not growth mode... 

This has the effect of dampening any comeback, which is what we are seeing and this is WHY states AND the federal government are seeing reduced tax receipts across the board of about 8%, which is alot...  The big IF's out there, which ALL affect small business, include healthcare, higher taxes, inflation, higher interest rates, etc... 

NONE of these issues have any resolution yet.... they are all big IF's (more likely when's), and after the past year, small business are a bit gun-shy...

I personally think that after the spring, things are going to tick up, but not much, but enough where people are going to want to get off the sidelines...  alot of the IF's will be answered by then... 

[fdjake]

I agree.....The spring will give us a better look.

And the bottom line here is this....

I COULD BE COMPLETELY WRONG!!!!

You and Mike could have this nailed....We COULD fail right back into recession. A classic Double dip....

As far as credit lines being CUT.....THAT is a VERY DECEIVING STAT.....You have to remember 2 things here...One of which you mentioned....First....Those lines were INCREASED during the economic boom and the LOOSE CREDIT standards of that time.  It's completely normal for those lines to get trimmed, and some shut down during a recession....That's BANKING 101......Second and more telling, is your statement that  these businesses AREN'T EVEN USING their credit lines.....PAYING CASH.....Well....Things can't be TOO BAD if these businesses are operating without the NEED of their credit lines BY CHOICE.  If they aren't USING THEM AT ALL.....Why would they need them INCREASED?????  It can't be both ways.  And I can ASSURE YOU that my banker's see CREDIT as CREDIT....Remember.....I invest in REAL ESTATE...The very commodity that KILLED large numbers of banks recently....I can tell you in no uncertain terms that getting CREDIT for REAL ESTATE INVESTING....... is VASTLY more difficult than getting a revolving line of credit for employee payroll or other uses.  Come on....Being an "INVESTOR" doesn't mean a thing to a banker....He's looking at TRACK RECORDS, CASH ON HAND, CASH FLOW, and EXPENSES....My situation is NO different than any other business.....IN FACT....It's HARDER to get credit for what I do than to get a floor plan line of credit for a Ford dealer.  THAT IS A FACT!!!  But I got half a million.....

Here's why........

A lot of the smaller local banks NEVER got into the sub-prime, alt A, interst only BS.....These banks are THRIVING NOW!!!!   They made TRADITIONAL LOANS to people with GOOD credit, DOWN PAYMENTS and TRACK RECORDS.  I could care less about some meeting in the White House between BOA and Obama....Bank of America is a complete JOKE.....I don't know a single local businessman here that would even have a CHECKING ACCOUNT with these BOOBS.....The real businessmen do their banking LOCALLY.....And that segment is GROWING at an incredible rate RIGHT NOW.

http://digg.com/business_finance/Small_Banks_Thrive_As_Giants_Fall

Be sure to read the COMMENTS section under the article....Lot's of business people saying they see the same thing...They moved their banking from a BIG bank that wouldn't lend to a small bank that WELCOMED THEIR BUSINESS and open their credit lines!!!!!
Positive.....You'll REALLY LIKE some of these comments.....Seems a lot of people think if the goverment just let the big banks fail......The smaller banks would fill the space NICELY!!!!

I didn't learn this from talking about what other business people are doing or hearing about talk......I learned this FIRST HAND......By getting a line of credit.

I can only report what I'm seeing first hand, from the front lines in my part of the world.

We'll see.

[propertymanager]

I'm judging the economy and the coming depression via common sense.  Much like several of us predicted the housing crash (when everyone thought it would continue forever) because it is common sense that prices don't go straight up without coming back down.  In addition, it was common sense that prices in the boom areas could only go so high before no-one would be able to afford them.

Fast forward to today.  We SHOULD have had a major depression in 2008 because the banks acted wrecklessly; people acted wrecklessly in getting mortgages they couldn't afford; unions and companies self-destructed due to ridiculous wages, etc.  In other words, America and Americans were living FAR above their means (and still are).  Instead of taking the pain of a depression, the government started the latest ponzi scheme in which they have printed money based on NOTHING and have played a giant shell game with all the debt that caused the problem.  The banks have not recovered - not even close.  All that's happened is that the government is GIVING THEM MONEY and the banks are calling it profit (which it is not).   If the government gave me money and I called it profit, I could make MASSIVE "PROFITS" also.

The trouble with all this government borrowing and printing of funny money is that it WILL be repaid by the citizens, one way or the other.   The reason that I said that I wasn't convinced Celente's prediction of a major depression in 2010 is that the government will fight til the end to prevent it.  How long can they continue to print massive amounts of funny money?  How much money can they spend trying to prevent an avalanche of foreclosures?   How long can they continue to provide stimulus for cars, housing, appliances, weatherization?  I think that they can still go significantly farther.  At some point, it will become abundantly clear that the emperor has no clothes and this giant ponzi scheme will collapse, taking the country with it.

Our country is BADLY BROKEN and won't survive this intact!  That's only common sense.

[sellnbama]

A good local bank (which I switched from Regions to) has put out signs to fight the headlines "We are financially fine and have $$ to lend.This brought to my attention the real root of the problem is big national banks and big govt,anyone should've known that was a bad idea.

  Anyhow I must agree with FD on that level of networking in your area and with a LOCAL BANK is key.We are slow,,but I'm glad to live in a right to work state.I can't see those Pro-Union states doing to good if southern states with alot cheaper labor and cost of living are feeling this.

  This is the same mentality we need to fight some of the big govt/big taxes.Start locally instead of bringing it straight to Washington.Unite as community=city=state.Now your state along with other states,,that will make washington listen.

  How stupid would Obama look labeling a whole state as he did with "teabaggers"?Think about it.
Our country will be great again,there's far too many of us who will fight to make it happen.

[fdjake]

GREAT POINTS!!

Maybe that's the REAL answer Bama......Local, State level, back to basics economics.....My local banks are the DRIVERS in our economy.  The real movers and shakers know this....The IDIOTS with $200 in a checking account, living pay check to pay check use Bank Of America. 

Real investors and business owners bank where they get SERVICE and CREDIT...................and that's at SMALL LOCAL BANKS!!!!

[allagash]

Looks like the US engine is starting to churn again......could it tailspin?.....sure.

Trade the trend....

It's too time consuming to figure out the WHY.....

Just concentrate on WHAT........price is doing.

Personally I like Walmart....not because I have a loose tooth....but I like their upscaling model.  Softer look....more expansive selection....Sam would be proud.

Still haven't gone the 56" flatscreen route....no need yet.

-Mike
>fdjake......ditched that Land Rover tonite......depleted some of your Ford inventory.  Nice stuff.

[John_in_NC]

I like his foreign policy trends. I honestly think he is a "political atheist" as he claims. He isn't afraid to state the obvious that the Red team/Blue team likes to use to divide and distort.  Our intervention in the middle east, causes our problems. And until we are out, we will be attacked again. For you neocons on here (and I mean that in a respectful way PO) the solution to this problem is called a non-intervention policy. A policy that our founding fathers believed in.

http://www.nowpublic.com/world/gerald-celente-predictions-2010-trends-research-institute-2549227.html

[propertymanager]

Gerald also talks about what he calls 'The Crash of 2010' where the Stimulus money will run out and interest rates cannot be lowered any more. Gerald says you need a productive capacity and not just print more money.

This is where I question Celente's timeline.  My understanding is that most of the stimulus has not been spent yet.  You can bet that incumbents of both parties will want to spend every penny they can to buy votes in 2010.  After 2010, you'll have the runup to the 2012 presidential election and they will once again pull out all the stops to keep the economy going.  Therefore, I don't think it will collapse until the dollar completely falls apart as a result of all the funny money being printed.  It's coming, but I doubt if a total collapse will occur as quickly as 2010.