The End is Near ...Sell everything and build a cave

[rookieNYC]

What a stupid topic for a thread right?....

This is a real estate website for real estate investors (for the most part) and this area of the forum is inundated with negativity..Many of the people posting these negative topics own millions of dollars in real estate..Dont be fooled for one second and think they are impervious to this doomsday of the US financial structure..They post ridiculous articles,links etc and dont add in for one minute that their own assets will be imploding in value with this supposed meltdown of the US financial  structure..They are advising you read books by people who are jumping on the bandwagon of negativity..Do some of the facts sound like they will happen,maybe..Just maybe...But the end to prosperity in the greatest country in the world..I wont bet against the US..Maybe in the short term we are in for some tough times but living underground and a Road Warrior type civilization will NOT happen in this country ever..There is too much capital that is invested in this country every day...Even now as we speak there are tons of Europeans buying properties in Florida..TONS...But if you read the paper you read nothing but gloom and doom in the state..These are times when people with money put it to work and make LONGTERM BETS...Is it a time when the college kid can go out and get 6 mortgages simply because he can breathe..NO ITS NOT...And Im happy that we arent in that phase anymore..Lending to people with no money invested is the reason why this country is in such poor shape..But dont think for one minute that the people who post these negative articles,posts,links etc arent going to get their ball$ handed to them just like the masses...Infact the last place I would like to have my money locked up is in Real Estate IF we get this financial meltdown
they speak of endlessly...Yet these same people have MOST of their money locked up in a deteriorating in value asset...Be careful who you listen to

[allagash]

Rookie,

You make an excellent point about guarding against hitching onto the bandwagon of negativity.

I’ll refer back to my recent post….”Don’t Miss The Bus”….and it’s charts:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3585763&cmd=show

You’ll note that there is no initial commentary from me……just charts!

Chart #120 is as good a place to start as any (SPX….that’s S&P 500 and it’s correlation with Gold since 1980)

Of course….I’m not directing this at you….for cripes sake…you’re the one who recommended that I pick up Steve Nison’s Candlesticks book.

But to readers here….this is an excellent chart to start with.

I’m immediately drawn to Gold’s spike upwards in ’01, (the 9/11 tragedy no doubt).

Also notable is the S&P’s resumption of ascent in ’03….and then it’s subsequent freefall beginning in late ’07.

Let’s recap and title these for simplicity sake

a)   Gold Panic of ‘01
b)   S&P Rally of ‘03
c)   S&P Freefall of ‘07

The first one is a no brainer.  A major terrorist attack that directly correlated to the hoarding of gold.

The second one is where it gets fuzzy.  Who knew in ’03 that we were well on our way to one hell of ride, (thanks we know now to slacking of lending standards, the Fed’s cheap interest rates and all that derivative stuff that I still have no inclination to try and figure out….although I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night).

The third….well let me put it this way.  When the masses were opening their 401k statements in early April of ‘09 with jaw dropping expressions…is it safe to say you were heavily buying?

So what’s the point?

Do we just stare at the pretty charts and look for trend lines?

Could care less about that.

So here….if anyone’s interested….is Joe Sixpack Mike’s down and dirty assessment of how to CAPITALIZE on this…..so you don’t miss the next bus.

Get the book….it’s about 60 bucks:

http://www.amazon.com/Japanese-Candlestick-Charting-Techniques-Second/dp/0735201811

In it you will be introduced to what are referred to as time interval candlesticks.  In short, the price of a tradeable’s price action, (whether that be gold, oil, S&P), is visually represented in what actually looks kind of like….you got it…..a candlestick.

Different looking candlesticks….allude to different things, (frantic selling, impulsive buying).  It’s really quite fascinating….while at the same time can be quite boring.  This visual representation is all contained within that one particular time frame….or candlestick as they say.

What are the time frames?  Whatever you want them to be.  You can choose a 1 minute interval or go way out on the time spectrum to a monthly interval.

A major temptation is to focus intra-day…where your likihood when green or a newbie is to get chopped into pieces.

But daily’s and weekly’s (especially when coupled with good buy/sell signaling software) are….to put it bluntly…..awesome.

These are the type of tools that we need to compete.

Our government and bankers, (for better or for worse), manipulated the S&P rally of 2003.

Likewise manipulation was again instituted in 2009.  We can bellyache and banter all we want….but had not the likes of Bernanke and Paulson roundtabled a bailout…we were headed for deep doo doo.

Personally….I’d rather participate.

I might be a week or two late to the party but that’s good enough for me.

What party?

It doesn’t matter to me.

I’ll celebrate long or short.  Prefer long.  Not necessarily because I’m a patriot….just ‘cause the odds favor it.

Hope this helps someone out there.

-Mike

btw…I stand by my “dead dog” comment….which was made in reference to Chart #130, (SPX valued in terms of Gold), from the same charts hyperlink.

Would this affect a trading decision made in March of ’09?  Hell no!

The author’s commentary, (refer to the blue boxed in area), is a good summation.

Anybody looked at foreclosure data lately?

[kj9876]

Well said Roookie, I come here because there is at times alot of good information at wealth building. It never made sense to me that these people claiming the end to country that they have so much invested in. If its going to be as bad as there claims they should be selling out and buying a one way ticket out of here!

[propertymanager]

Well, I don't even know where to start with this thread.  First, caves are naturally occurring and therefore I don't think you need to build one.  A person could build an underground shelter, but I don't think that is necessary unless you live in tornado alley!

Many of the people posting these negative topics own millions of dollars in real estate..Dont be fooled for one second and think they are impervious to this doomsday of the US financial structure..They post ridiculous articles,links etc and dont add in for one minute that their own assets will be imploding in value with this supposed meltdown of the US financial  structure..

That could very well happen.  If we have a deflationary depression, real estate values could drop significantly.  Additionally, the constantly increasing numbers of foreclosed property could/should cause real estate prices to continue to decrease (the Case-Shiller people are saying another 15%).  Hopefully, the rents will keep coming in and therefore the value of the property won't matter to me.  I need the income stream to maintain my lifestyle, not the equity.  That is exactly the reason that I am holding my rentals instead of selling and buying gold.  While I do expect gold to increase significantly, I just don't know how I would generate a reliable income stream with it.  On the other hand, we could have runaway inflation which would drastically raise the value of real estate, which isn't a particularly good thing since everything else would be inflating also.  What good is it if a $50,000 house becomes worth $1,000,000 house if a loaf of bread costs $50?  

But the end to prosperity in the greatest country in the world..I wont bet against the US..Maybe in the short term we are in for some tough times but living underground and a Road Warrior type civilization will NOT happen in this country ever

Here we go again!  NO-ONE (except RookieNYC) said anything about living underground or a road warrior type civilization.  What I have said and do believe, is that the United States is BROKE and is going to collapse.  The United States is in the same predicament that Wall Street was before their bust (deep in debt; broke; and running a ponzi scheme).  The big difference is that Wall Street was bailed out by the largest transfer of wealth (theft) in history from the middle class to the Wall Street Fat Cats (which is still in progress).  Unfortunately for the US Government and out country, there is no-one else to steal from, and therefore the government and our country can not be bailed out.

In my opinion, a collapse is absolutely inevitable.  The only question is what will happen.  A severe depression with civil unrest?  A civil war?  States seceding from the union?  Global war?  The other question is what will trigger the collapse.  An oil spike?  A nuke going off in NYC?  Mideast war?

 

If its going to be as bad as there claims they should be selling out and buying a one way ticket out of here!

Where would you go?

[rookieNYC]

kj9876,
  That is exactly my point..And for years that I have been here I hear these same talking heads dreaming of the day they can buy properties at a deep discount..That day arrives and they decide to be gripped by fear instead of taking advantage of what is a once in a lifetime oppurtunity..These same people never posted one single time that they were selling into the bubble decade..They kept spewing cashflow cashflow cashflow...Meanwhile the NET money derived from being a landlord is chump change unless you own 50-100 units..These individuals have zero skills for risk assessment and should have no right to post their opinions about money management..Get back to doing what you do best ,mow the lawns and shovel the snow of your cash cows that are losing weight by the day in the implosion of the US financial structure..And keep digging deeper to make that cave nice and dark...Maybe if you dig deep enough we wont have to hear your ridiculous useless babble any more..To think one of these individuals actually sells books on how to make money from Real Estate..I wonder if the last chapter is doom and gloom and dont listen to other 11 chapters because the end is near and these supposed cashcow properties will be vacant and worthless...

[fdjake]

Personally,  I can't BELIEVE Mike hasn't purchased a SINGLE PROPERTY in 2009.....A year that will (in all likelyhood) go down in HISTORY as LOW POINT for Real Estate values....

Don't think so?????

Here's a NEWS FLASH for ya......

When you can buy HOUSES for LESS than the price of a USED CAR????

THAT'S THE BOTTOM FOLKS...........THE  B O  T  T O M

Another measure that has stood the test of TIME for identifyling real estate BOTTOMS?????

REPLACEMENT COST.......When I can buy an entire HOME for LESS than the LAND VALUE........That is a CLASSIC example of market OVER REACTION!!!

My question is simple.....

WHY aren't you people "BEING THE BANK"  It's a BEAUTIFUL BUSINESS MODEL.......You buy a property for PENNNIES on the dollar.  SELL IT to a buyer with decent income and a DOWN PAYMENT, but BAD CREDIT (divorce, foreclosure, ect) and YOU ARE THE BANK.....

NO PHONE CALLS ABOUT BACKED UP TOILETS
NO SNOW SHOVELING
NO MAINTAINANCE
NO PROPERTY TAXES
NO  T E N A N T S
NO BULLSH*T
YOU set the TERMS

You're the LIEN HOLDER.......They NO PAYEE......THEY NO HAVE HOUSEY.
You keep their DOWN PAYMENT, INTEREST, and the HOUSE!!!!!  Then do it all AGAIN!!  Another DOWN PAYMENT, another 2 or 3 years of INTEREST PAYMENTS!!  It's almost hard to believe it's LEGAL.  BUT IT IS!!!!

On an average $100,000 home with a 30 year mortgage the "BUYER" will pay back "the bank" almost $300,000 over the life of the loan....And we all know.....The INTEREST GETS PAID BACK FIRST!!!!
And the BEST PART?????   YOU'RE LOANING MONEY ON REAL ESTATE DURING A HISTORIC REAL ESTATE BUST.........I'm not going to be UPSIDE DOWN on ANY of these properties, UNLIKE the IDIOT  bankers that loaned people $300,000 on a home which I just paid $40,000 for...(Last WEEK!!)
That house will SELL for $200K....I'll be the BANK....They'll eventually pay ME between 2 to 3 times that $200K!!!!!

DOOM and GLOOM?????

More like.......DUMB and DUMBER!!!!

OPEN YOUR EYES PEOPLE.........There's a SALE going on in the GREATEST COUNTRY ever created.  TAKE ADVANTAGE.........NOW!!!!

[propertymanager]

Personally,  I can't BELIEVE Mike hasn't purchased a SINGLE PROPERTY in 2009.....A year that will (in all likelyhood) go down in HISTORY as LOW POINT for Real Estate values....

Believe it and I don't plan to buy any more rentals in 2010, 2011, 2012, or in any other year.  I've gotten to where I want to be.  My goal isn't to become a billionaire and be forced to work 24/7.  I have reached the number of rentals that will support my lifestyle and will provide more income as the properties are paid off.  I am not in the rental business so that I can work 9-5!!!  I hate sitting in an office.  I don't want to work everyday.  If I kept buying more and more rentals, I would have to work more and more.  Sure, I know what all the uninformed will say - that I could hire managers, maintenance men, etc and let them do all the grunt work.  However, that would suck up a BUNCH of my cash flow, necessitating even more rentals just to have the income I have today.  I once owned a company with 50 employees and 2 layers of management for about 6 years and I can tell you with 100% certainty that employees are WORSE than tenants.  YUK!

Don't you guys have any goals you're shooting for?  Isn't there ever going to be a point where you've worked enough and will start enjoying the money you've made.  If you make $10K a month, do you need $20K?  If you make $20K, do you need $40K?  If you make $40K, do you need $80K a month?  Is any amount enough?  How about net worth?  If you have $1 Million, do you need $2 Million?  If you have $2 Million, do you need $4 Million?  If you have $4 Million, do you need $8 Million?  How much is enough and how many hours are you willing to work each week to get it?

Yes, there are great real estate deals this year.  There will be even better deals next year.  There were great deals when I bought all my rentals - I just had to work harder to find them during the boom.

That is exactly my point..And for years that I have been here I hear these same talking heads dreaming of the day they can buy properties at a deep discount..That day arrives and they decide to be gripped by fear instead of taking advantage of what is a once in a lifetime oppurtunity..

You have NOT heard me DREAMING OF ANYTHING!  I bought DOZENS of rentals over the past several years at a deep discount.  I still own every one of them.  Furthermore, this is NOT a once in a lifetime opportunity.  Housing prices are not going significantly higher anytime soon.  There is a HUGE inventory of unsold homes, including huge numbers that are not even on the market. 

If a person is building their rental business, then this is a good time to be buying.  Next year will likely be even better.  Keep buying until you get what you need.  I am not advocating that people stop buying if they are building their business.  Keep going just like normal.  That's what I am doing.

However, I also believe that the economy and the country is going to collapse.  I don't think there is ANY DOUBT ABOUT THAT!  Therefore, I am acting accordingly, which includes stockpiling food, water, and ammo.   How much does it cost to stockpile food, water, and ammo - ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!  Why, because we have to eat anyway and I will go shooting anyway.  All I am doing is buying the food upfront and then taking the food that we eat out of our stockpile instead of going to the grocery so often.  If I am right and the economy collapses, that food (and ammo) could come in quite handy.  If I am wrong, and we go back to normal growth in this country, that's great and I'll be glad that I was wrong!

What none of the naysayers have told us is how things are going to work out.  The federal government is broke.  The federal government has more than $100 TRILLION in unfunded entitlements going forward.  Medicare was going broke before the latest crisis ever happened.  Social security was going broke before the latest crisis ever happened.  We have an increasing number of people who are too lazy to work because the government has promoted laziness through welfare, section 8, etc.  Now, the government is planning to raise huge new taxes to pay for health care reform.  Now, the government is planning to raise huge new taxes to pay for cap and trade.  The government is planning to allow the Bush tax cuts to expire.  Anyone that understands history KNOWS what will happen when all these taxes are raised - LESS MONEY WILL COME INTO THE TREASURY!  Even more businesses will move overseas.  Even more houses will be foreclosed on.   Where is the money coming from to take care of these problems?  I'd like to hear the naysayers explain how everything will be ok!

[phlemboy]

In regards to Steve Nison. He also has a great book called the "The Candlestick Course" You can get it on ebay for about $50. You can get his DVD seminars for about $100 - $200. They are WELL  worth the money.

[REIER]

Personally,  I can't BELIEVE Mike hasn't purchased a SINGLE PROPERTY in 2009.....A year that will (in all likelyhood) go down in HISTORY as LOW POINT for Real Estate values....

Don't think so?????

Here's a NEWS FLASH for ya......

When you can buy HOUSES for LESS than the price of a USED CAR????

THAT'S THE BOTTOM FOLKS...........THE  B O  T  T O M

Another measure that has stood the test of TIME for identifyling real estate BOTTOMS?????

REPLACEMENT COST.......When I can buy an entire HOME for LESS than the LAND VALUE........That is a CLASSIC example of market OVER REACTION!!!

My question is simple.....

WHY aren't you people "BEING THE BANK"  It's a BEAUTIFUL BUSINESS MODEL.......You buy a property for PENNNIES on the dollar.  SELL IT to a buyer with decent income and a DOWN PAYMENT, but BAD CREDIT (divorce, foreclosure, ect) and YOU ARE THE BANK.....

NO PHONE CALLS ABOUT BACKED UP TOILETS
NO SNOW SHOVELING
NO MAINTAINANCE
NO PROPERTY TAXES
NO  T E N A N T S
NO BULLSH*T
YOU set the TERMS

You're the LIEN HOLDER.......They NO PAYEE......THEY NO HAVE HOUSEY.
You keep their DOWN PAYMENT, INTEREST, and the HOUSE!!!!!  Then do it all AGAIN!!  Another DOWN PAYMENT, another 2 or 3 years of INTEREST PAYMENTS!!  It's almost hard to believe it's LEGAL.  BUT IT IS!!!!

On an average $100,000 home with a 30 year mortgage the "BUYER" will pay back "the bank" almost $300,000 over the life of the loan....And we all know.....The INTEREST GETS PAID BACK FIRST!!!!
And the BEST PART?????   YOU'RE LOANING MONEY ON REAL ESTATE DURING A HISTORIC REAL ESTATE BUST.........I'm not going to be UPSIDE DOWN on ANY of these properties, UNLIKE the IDIOT  bankers that loaned people $300,000 on a home which I just paid $40,000 for...(Last WEEK!!)
That house will SELL for $200K....I'll be the BANK....They'll eventually pay ME between 2 to 3 times that $200K!!!!!

DOOM and GLOOM?????

More like.......DUMB and DUMBER!!!!

OPEN YOUR EYES PEOPLE.........There's a SALE going on in the GREATEST COUNTRY ever created.  TAKE ADVANTAGE.........NOW!!!!

FDjake,

I appreciate all the advice you have given here over the years that's been spot on. For that I want to publicly thank you, Sir. You where spot on with the Ford stock advice and I'm kicking my self for not buying it at $2..3..4..5 dollars a share. You where right, I was wrong for doubting you. I know you and Rookie are spot on with your RE advice.

I lurke here a lot and read all your posts, along with Rookie's and even Mike's (I'm a bit dissapointed with Mike's attitude lately, but I hope he snaps out of it, as I have a lot of respect for him) but I decided to register to thank you and to ask a question on the owner financing post you just made.

You say that you are doing owner financing to these buyers, so I was wondering how you are structuring your deals? Are you creating a note? Or are you doing a lease with an option to buy? If you are doing a note, how do you get around the foreclosure process in the even you need to? In many states it takes close to a year to foreclose.

Thanks.

[allagash]

phlemboy....

Glad to see you're into Nison.

That....in itself....says a lot.

If you'd like to carry some discussion further.....feel free to PM me.

-Mike

[propertymanager]

Let's mark this day.  FDJake has called the bottom for real estate and the economy.  I'd also like to have his prediction on jobs.  

Let me make the contrast very clear.  

FDJake - the bottom is in for real estate.
Mike - the bottom is NOT in for real estate (not even close)

FDJake - the bottom is in for the economy and a boom is imminent
Mike - the economy is going to collapse

FDJake - jobs prediction?
Mike - real unemployment will get MUCH worse.

Mike - I've explained exactly WHY the economy will collapse:  The federal government is broke.  The federal government has more than $100 TRILLION in unfunded entitlements going forward.  Medicare was going broke before the latest crisis ever happened.  Social security was going broke before the latest crisis ever happened.  We have an increasing number of people who are too lazy to work because the government has promoted laziness through welfare, section 8, etc.  Now, the government is planning to raise huge new taxes to pay for health care reform.  Now, the government is planning to raise huge new taxes to pay for cap and trade.  The government is planning to allow the Bush tax cuts to expire.  Anyone that understands history KNOWS what will happen when all these taxes are raised - LESS MONEY WILL COME INTO THE TREASURY!  More debt, less money to the government. Even more businesses will move overseas.  Even more houses will be foreclosed on.  The economy is going to collapse.

FDJake - still waiting for an explanation for the coming boom he predicted!

I lurke here a lot and read all your posts, along with Rookie's and even Mike's (I'm a bit dissapointed with Mike's attitude lately, but I hope he snaps out of it,

Snap out of it?  What do you want me to do, patronize you and tell you everything will be great.  I'm not jumping on that bandwagon because I simply don't believe it! 

[Hoosier4life2005]

I know many here dont value my opinion at all... but ..  Im with mike 100% on this one.


If you look at the facts, its pretty obvious theres ALOT of trouble coming.  Inflation/Debt/Nanny State policies/lack of manufacturing are all looking really bad right now.  If you look at those charts somebody posted, alot of them are frightning.  We all know the whole story, so im not going to get into it.

I know people have gotten scared many times in this country, and we've always bounced back.  But I have a gut feeling this is unlike any other recession due to our debt and such.

Im not saying you CANT make money in this economy, because you CAN.  But regardless if you can make money, that doesnt mean this country still isnt in a lot of trouble.

[propertymanager]

I know many here dont value my opinion at all...

That's because you're not spouting the party line.  If you were a good little comrade and would support the socialist agenda - you would be welcomed with open arms.  Now repeat after me!

Everything will be alright.  The CHOSEN ONE told me so.
Everything will be alright.  The CHOSEN ONE told me so.
Everything will be alright.  The CHOSEN ONE told me so.

Repeat that 100 times and you'll feel better.  The CHOSEN ONE told me so.

[Hoosier4life2005]

(sits back into seat)....

The CHOSEN ONE told me so.  (Repeats 100 times to myself)
----------------------------

 

[rookieNYC]

Mike,
  I still have respect for you...You aren't acting like the stand up guy I thought you were..You will quickly lose respect spewing nonsense like you have been..Moderator or not..Everyone is entitled to their opinions..Even fdjake..And you more than anyone know he and I have bumped heads more than a few times..And this entire argument isnt over predictions,it may be to you it isnt to me..I want to make more money..And I see opps and I will voice my opinion..I could care less what some internet guru says..And I dont buy that you are content that made enough money...BS...How much could you have possibly made in RE in Ohio????..Enough to retire on?..Doubtful...So you can post false and shielded answers to the kiddies on this forum but the people with a few dollars see through the smoke screen of fear you are portraying..We are oppurtunists,irregardless of the economy or BS forecasts or future bumps in the road...For you to say that you dont want to add any more properties to your stable at the current levels is utter and complete BS..Who on earth doesnt want to make a few more profitable investments..Even if you bought the properties and played the bank like fdjake and I do its a huge business..You are setting a poor example to up and coming real estate investors by being paralyzed by fear in the face of oppurtunity..And you are setting a poor example because you more than anyone own "millions of dollars in real estate" during what is surely the most vicious pullback in our history in those assets...So you more than anyone have lost the most here...I firmly believe now is a great time to get started in the real estate business...And as you know Im as far right as one can get on the political front so my opinion isnt based on BO or any other reason than sheer opinion that there is alot more money to be made..

I think you moderators should spend more time fixing all the bugs on this site than posting