Capitalism Up, Stock Market Down!

[propertymanager]

Here's an article that makes the case for a collapse better than I can - although I think I discussed some considerations that the article didn't include.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/01/2010_will_be_worse.html

A couple of quotes from the article:

"Zerohedge estimated that demand (financing) for U.S. fixed-income securities must increase elevenfold in order to fund capital needs in 2010. Continued shrinkage in foreign participation in U.S. fixed-income markets makes that increase impossible."

"All alternatives will be very painful, and none offer the possibility of a traditional recovery. No matter what alternative is chosen, the country cannot avoid a depression. At this point, "do no further harm" should guide policy."   

[PositiveOutlook]

Buffett Says He Can’t See Rationale for Bank Levy, Bloomberg,

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPdhurDmpnhE


Interestingly enough, this article goes a long way in making Propertymanagers point about the government propping things up...


An interesting quote regarding a special tax for the banks - "Look at the damage Fannie and Freddie caused, and they were run by the Congress,” said Buffett. “Should they have a special tax on congressmen because THEY LET THIS THING HAPPEN to Freddie and Fannie? I don’t think so.”

How true... never mind Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid, etc...

Another interesting quote...  "Unnecessary Rescue - “MOST of the banks didn’t need to be saved,” Buffett said. “Including Wells Fargo.”

[PositiveOutlook]

Democrats propose $1.9T increase in debt limit (bringing the total debt limit to 14.3 TRILLION)...

"Republican Sen. John Thune of South Dakota immediately offered an amendment to end the bank and Wall Street bailout, officially known as the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. Thune would prohibit further expenditure of TARP funds and would require that all funds paid back be used to retire debt"

A step in the RIGHT direction....  what is scary about this, is that when Bush left office the national debt was $10.6 TRILLION and now they are raising the limit for THIS YEAR ONLY by $1.9 TRILLION to $14.3 TRILLION.  and that doesn't even INCLUDE healthcare...   

"Less than a decade ago, $1.9 trillion would have been enough to finance the operations and programs of the federal government for an entire year. Now, it's only enough to make sure Democrats can avoid another vote before Election Day."

Wouldn't it be great if Congress' pay was tied to performance?  Or better yet, tie their pay to the national income average... if wages depress, so do theirs...

We can dream, can't we?...   

[rookieNYC]

Mike,
I follow investors and fund managers who made money this year..You keep quoting Bill Gross's article that over 1 year old..Yet many dont feel that the end is near as you do..And American Thinker isnt much of a spinoff from infowrs but you are getting there..In the Equity markets and *real financial world* we read the Wall street Journal and IBD,and SeekingAlpha etc..Thats not to say that we arent due for a pullback from this point ,because as Ive said repeatedly we ARE..Just not utter devastation as you predict....I post some articles from people who have made billions this year and predict things will improve..Now with all due respect without hurting your feelings but I listen to people who walk the walk..You dont..Hiding in a fallout shelter with 9mm in one hand and Green Giant in the other is not my idea of an entrepreneurial mind I should believe..

Below Im posting to links to  people who have profited from the worlds ending as you put it..Here is an article about a guy named David tepper who made $7 BILLION for his fund and $2.5 BILLION for himself during the darkest of times and predicts things will improve...At the end of the article this written "Mr. Tepper says the worrywarts have it wrong: "If you think the economy will be fine, as we do, then we're going to do very well."...But what does he know..


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126135805328299533.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&sid=a8UeEKIEIsc0

Im also posting articles from a little known investor named Warren Buffett,and if you didnt know he manages far more than Bill Gross and is respected  by just a few peers globally as well...Here are some links to his predictions..

http://warrenbuffett.valuestockplus.net/warren-buffett-beats-bill-gross-in-global-poll-as-investor-with-most-wisdom
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28392900
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Timeless-and-TimeTested-cnbc-4209697051.html?x=0

And these are direct quotes from Buffetts article..But you can challenge these ofcourse..I mean in the end surely I should follow your investing advice over Warren Buffett..
;2. We'll survive current and future recessions just as we've survived past problems.   As Buffett told us in August, 2008, (and repeated throughout 2009):  "We've got a wonderful economy... There's never been anything like that in the history of the world. We live seven times better than the people did a century ago on average... We've had problems all along. If you look at the last century, we had that Great Depression and World War Two, we had the Cold War, we had the atomic bomb, but the country does well."3.  Recessions will create opportunities.   "I made by far the best buys I've ever made in my lifetime in 1974. And that was a time of great pessimism and the oil shock and stagflation and all those sort of things. But stocks were cheap."  Fast-forward to October, 2008, and Buffett's Why I'm Buying U.S. Stocks Now

No offense but this out of hand..Like I said before you have no business spewing opinions on matters that you so little research on other than gloom and doom sites..

"The Oracle of Omaha retains his pre-eminence as a market visionary, outshining a new wave of financial strategists and the best-known central bankers.

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett, chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., is regarded as the best assessor of financial markets by a plurality of almost one-fourth of respondents to the quarterly poll of investors, traders and analysts who subscribe to the Bloomberg terminal.

The closest runner-up, Bill Gross, the founder and co- chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., is chosen by 16 percent. Billionaire investor George Soros gets 10 percent, followed by Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who in 2006 predicted the financial crisis, and Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.

[allagash]

in a fallout shelter with 9mm in one hand and Green Giant in the other

now that was funny.....lmao

c'mon Mike...smile a little

some very good points..btw.

-Mike

[fdjake]

Interestingly.......Marc Faber is warning of a collapse......BUT IN CHINA!!!

Isn't that EXACTLY how it would work out.......The main stream FINANCIAL MEDIA has talking head after talking head yapping.....BRIC, BRIC, BRIC........The HERD is piling in there RIGHT NOW...

We're going to see a REAL ESTATE BUST in......... C H I N A!!!!!!!
It's MIND BOGGLING what's going on over there....When that BREAKS....You'll see carnage in their banking system just like we had....

And NO ONE is talking about it.

That's the point.......PAY ATTENTION to the things that are NOT being mentioned.....ALMOST NO ONE......ANYWHERE, right now is talking about a ROBUST GROWING US ECONOMY....Everywhere you turn it's DOOM & GLOOM...

All myself and Rookie are trying to do here is this.....

OPEN YOUR EYES........When you CAN NOT find BULLETS in a WALMART because the MASSES are buying them to HOARD for the coming COLLAPSE........That in it's self should be setting off ALARM BELLS in a REAL INVESTORS head.....

THINK

THINK

THINK

RE-READ the FORD posts here going back over 2 years now.....Read about WHY that company didn't go into bankruptcy...The signs were all there....From the Mortgaging of the Blue Oval itself when financing was EVERYWHERE to the Ford Families "Super Shares"  to Mulally's compensation package and PERFORMANCE INCENTIVES.....Read some of the older posts BEFORE the Real estate bust and listen to the ARGUEMENTS being made by the majority back then that said....

"We won't have a Real Estate bust."

Pay ATTENTION to the MINORITY.......The people who are NOT on TV and are NOT SELLING something.

This Country is NOT going to COLLAPSE.....There system is TOO GOOD.

As far as Social Security and Medicare.......An entire GENERATION (MINE) don't expect to see a DIME of that money.......GUESS WHAT???  At some point a few smart politicians are going to REALIZE that and USE IT.  
It's just a matter of time.....and MATH.....You can't have 1 person WORKING and paying IN with 5 people NOT WORKING and TAKING OUT.....At some point it just STOPS being paid.  AGAIN......an entire GENERATION already expects this.

The key to our FUTURE has already been laid out by our PAST....

Look at the modern family.....30 years ago it was ONE WORKING MALE.....One car, a small 800 sq ft house, and people went without.

Move forward to NOW.......TWO parents working FULL TIME......2 NEW CARS (with payments of coarse)  3000 sq ft home (and all the added expense that goes with it)  kids get $200 cell phones at age 10 and ride $300 bikes!!
And these people have NO SAVINGS....Life got HARDER.....NOT EASIER.....It got HARDER because that's what THEY WANTED.....THEY FOLLOWED THE OTHER SHEEP down BULLSH*T Street....

The WEALTH BUILDERS do the OPPOSITE (as ALWAYS)  They SACRIFICE, THEY SAVE, They BUY REAL ESTATE at times when just telling people you purchased an INVESTMENT PROPERTY is met with SHOCK and AWE!!!
They buy FORD STOCK when NO ONE ELSE wants a car company stock run by a guy that truned around an AIR CRAFT COMPANY afetr 911 when NO ONE WAS FLYING!!!!

We're trying to get people here to OPEN THEIR EYES a BIT......LOOK at what's REALLY going on.....Watch for the signals.....(Like NO AMMO SIGNS at WALMARTS!!!)

RETIREMENT is about to go the SAME WAY for this generation.....BUT.....They have ALREADY been CONDITIONED for it so it won;t be a shock.....It's ALREADY HAPPENING!!!!
There will be NO RETIREMENT (except for people like us that BUILD WEALTH)  the Average American will work until the day he DIES....NO social security....just a sh*tty, poorly managed 401K.....and WORK.  But at that point the DEBT BURDEN on the country will drop SEVERELY.

CYCLES......EBB and FLOW.......NOTHING is TRUELY.............NEW.

 

[allagash]

great stuff fdjake...

-Mike
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiAtlT7Ba6c&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zx3m4e45bTo&feature=channel

[phlemboy]

I don't think China will have a uge bust in RE. The Chinese govt. just ordered banks to curb lending and to increase the quality of buyers. The govt. has a huge position in the banks and wants the growth to equal demand so things don't get out of hand. The growing middle class in China is the catalyst for growth. That growing middle class will begin to desire the things the U.S middle class desires. This growth expansion will be controlled by the China's govt..

[propertymanager]

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett, chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., is regarded as the best assessor of financial markets by a plurality of almost one-fourth of respondents to the quarterly poll of investors, traders and analysts who subscribe to the Bloomberg terminal.

The closest runner-up, Bill Gross, the founder and co- chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., is chosen by 16 percent. Billionaire investor George Soros gets 10 percent, followed by Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who in 2006 predicted the financial crisis, and Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.

So, out of the people you listed, Gross called the economy a "ponzi-style economy", Soros is a BIG TIME socialist, Nouriel Roubini is predicting the mother of all asset busts and Marc Faber is predicting a total collapse HERE IN THE US!  However, since they don't support your view, maybe they're not qualified to comment on the economy either.  Here are a couple of the videos:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYl_FFFGRBM&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyHuZ8LUY50&feature=related

OPEN YOUR EYES........When you CAN NOT find BULLETS in a WALMART because the MASSES are buying them to HOARD for the coming COLLAPSE........That in it's self should be setting off ALARM BELLS in a REAL INVESTORS head.....

The vast majority of gun owners are NOT buying bullets because of a coming collapse.  They are buying bullets because we have a socialist in the White House that would like nothing better than to take our guns and ammo.

That's the point.......PAY ATTENTION to the things that are NOT being mentioned.....ALMOST NO ONE......ANYWHERE, right now is talking about a ROBUST GROWING US ECONOMY....Everywhere you turn it's DOOM & GLOOM...

I would argue that the opposite is true.  The sheople are being told that the recession is over.  Unemployment benefits have been extended to infinity and Osama Obama is going to save the world.  Although I am not hearing doom and gloom from the masses, I would agree with you that I am also not hearing talk about a robust growing US ECONOMY.

The key to our FUTURE has already been laid out by our PAST....

I couldn't agree more.  Decades of overspending and the decades long move toward socialism have set the stage for a collapse of epic proportions.

This isn't brain surgery - anymore than the real estate bust was.  The USA is financing our debt with imaginary dollars created out of thin air BECAUSE WE CAN NO LONGER SELL IT TO FOREIGNERS (or anyone else).  It's a ponzi scheme based on NOTHING!  There is ONLY ONE WAY that it can end (and it's not a robust growing economy).

[jfpen]

I don't think China will have a uge bust in RE. The Chinese govt. just ordered banks to curb lending and to increase the quality of buyers. The govt. has a huge position in the banks and wants the growth to equal demand so things don't get out of hand. The growing middle class in China is the catalyst for growth. That growing middle class will begin to desire the things the U.S middle class desires. This growth expansion will be controlled by the China's govt..

This week I'm working for one of the largest mutual fund companies in the world. The word on China was that there is simply no way to get accurate economic data from them.  The communist government has no transparency. Even the value the Yuan is being kept artificially low.
I would think that anything is possible under these circumstances.