DOW Down 1,000 - a hint of things to come!

[InvstrPaul]

I definitely think we are headed for a double dip recession.  A recent post I came across pointed out 7 reasons why.  A good read http://moneyloansnow.net/7-economic-sins-scream-double-dip-recession/2010/08/

Between consumer confidence (lack thereof), hindenberg omen, and unemployment it sure looks like it is a good possibility.  Any plans to make money off of it?  If I can come up with the money I'm considering some ETF shorts, buying precious metals, and maybe some puts for BP.  Seems like BP may eventually be reamed and there are some pretty cheap puts out there that could be very profitable.  I really wish I had shorted some of those sh*tty colleges like Devry because they've been taking a beating.

[rookieNYC]

IM NOT BULLISH....I just think ALOT of people are overly negative and net short...When too many people move in one direction I would expect the market to wrench higher...shake the shorts out for a huge loss then tank...The equity markets never do what u expect...I wouldn't touch gold here with a 100 foot pole...Its run up is unprecedented...BP's puts are cheap for a reason...The time to short BP was when it was $60...IMHO...Cash is king for now...I don't have a real feel for the market at this juncture and that is my honest opinion...The rubber band isn't stretched at all in either direction to make me pull the trigger...Ive been in a huge cash position for a while now...Pretaining to my market related investments that is...

[justin0419]

This is probably a stupid newbie question for mutual fund investing, but for IRAs shouldn't my wife and I max out our contribution each year because we can't go back and make it up later?  Even if the market goes down for a period of time, those are still shares we'll own that can go back up later (my thoughts at least). 
I agree completely about gold.  When you hear advertisements on TV/Radio and have people paid to wave signs about all these places buying gold, you have a bubble.  Sounds eerily familiar of everyone trying to buy RE during the bubble. 
I felt like BP got oversold from $40 down to $30, but we haven't bought any stocks for a couple years.

[rookieNYC]

Justin...

I completely agree with maxxing out IRA and 401k (as long as you are diversified)....I firmly believe in dollar cost averaging investing OVER THE LONG TERM....Example is my wife...When we met my wife was a typical woman..Buried in credit card debt...Buried in school loans...Overall a bad saver....I forced her to start maxxing out her 401k 13 years ago....She is stunned at what she has saved now (with a little help from me making the investment options )...Point being dollar cost averaging in IRA's and 401k's pays off OVER LONG TERM SPANS...I suggest it for any young person...Dont be scared off from economic forecasts...Dollar cost averaging puts you in at multiple levels...And years FLY BY brother...Before you know it you will have 200k and wonder how it got there...If you never start I guarantee it will be harder to save that figure...I don't know much abt RE but abt investing I know a bunch...

[InvstrPaul]

I also believe gold is probably overhyped but I still believe gold and especially silver still have room to grow.  The main reason I believe this is due to inflation/hyperinflation.   I just don't see how we won't have a good deal of inflation in the coming months/years.

I also believe BP is oversold right now.  However, the devastation down in the Gulf is ridiculous and I believe in the long run BP is going to have major problems as a result of this.  So I'm fairly convinced that BP will start sucking the big one or go out of business in the next couple of years.  I'll see if I can find the article on the puts but the general idea was that they are so cheap that for a little under 2k you have a pretty good chance of 500 to 1400% ROI.

Overall compared to the average investor I'm probably considered very bearish but compared to most of the people on here I'd probably be classified as mildly bearish.  I believe things are going to get worse...possibly much worse but I don't think we're close to Mad Max unless Israel and Iran decide to take us all there.  I'm just really bullish about a very few select companies and bearish about the rest of the US market.

I'll end my post with my sure thing recommendation.  Buy Harley Davidson (HOG).  I've owned this stock since before I was 10 years old and my return on investment is over 1000% for my original 5 shares (now 50 shares) that I received as a Christmas present.  I have quite a few more shares than that original 5 but this is a quick and easy calculation.  Harley has survived depressions, recessions, change of ownership, expansions, and all other kinds of problems/competitions.  Most of the their profit comes from clothing and not motorcycles.  Anywho, buy now while it's cheap because traditionally it splits in the mid 50s to low 60s...trust me I know it 2 for 1 split 5 times while I've owned it for not quite 20 years.

[allagash]

sell in May....then go away

nice call rookie....

Here's Nasdaq 100 for the period:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ&p=D&st=2010-02-01&en=(today)&id=p82808781211

-Mike

[rookieNYC]

allagash,
 ty but as you have read here from another poster Im just a fraud,a sham...A broke nobody with nothing to offer..I fill my posts with nonsense and dont really have any experience with the equity markets..My business experience is something I made up for the internet...I dont really have a hard money business either...I made that up as well..I'm headed to a cooking forum next to tell Martha Stewart how its really done  ....

My life is dedicated to the equity markets and my various businesses...I was *forced* to take the summer off from my wife under the threat of her..Im a workaholic..Im a highly disciplined individual..I workout 7 days a week whether running,gym,surfing,yoga etc...Im a real type A personality...I post here to *help* others and have very little to gain doing so other than the satisfaction I may have helped someone else learn something...I wont go down the list but I take my time to help others from this forum anytime Ive been approached...To have my integrity questioned was/is highly insulting to me..Like I said earlier Chris W (moderator) is a friend of mine and I would be more than comfortable at *anytime* verifying anything I have posted or claimed about myself in documents,contracts,portfolio statements,mortgages I hold etc...It enrages me to be called a fraud ever..

[InvstrPaul]

If anyone cares I just thought I'd share my update on the equity markets.  I've continued adding to my precious metals and am looking to buy several food companies as a food inflation hedge.  Currently I'm looking at Kraft and General Mills.  I'm also tempted to just buy straight commodities but I probably won't.  My main strategy is to hedge against inflation and buy blue chip dividend companies...preferably when they have a pullback/sale.  Oh I almost forgot that I'm buying tech ETFs as well as several tech stocks, namely Intel.

I'm diligently reading several recommended books atm and look forward to anyone else's thoughts/opinions/updates.  Hope you all are doing well.

[phlemboy]

There are some relatively new commodity ETF's. www.cnbc.com had an article on them a few days ago.. The emerging markets will need commodities like oil, copper and agriculture products..

[InvstrPaul]

Thanks for the info.  I'd like to get into some commodities but I just don't have the cash for the futures market.  So the only way I can do commodities is through buying stock or etfs.  I'll have to look those over and see if any of them are promising.  In general it looks like commodities will be rising, especially food.

[allagash]

your best bet....imho:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_2000

learn to track the markets....here's SPY, (S&P 500), for the past 6 months:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p30273367204

generally speaking.....everything else.....follows it:

http://www.barchart.com/etf/vleaders.php

-Mike