Silver vs. JPMorgan

[InvstrPaul]

I don't know if any of you have been following the viral movement online but it's pretty interesting.  If you search for "crash JPMorgan", Max Keiser, or go to zerohedge you can find a bunch of info about it. I bought a few Silver Eagles for Christmas presents and I hope it helps stop the corruption.  If anyone is interested I'd be more than happy to talk about it while trying to follow the political rules of the forum.

[fdjake]

If anyone thinks for a split second that a YouTube campaign asking people to buy one or two silver coins is going to "crash JP Morgan" they're kidding themselves.

This is the type of situation that amazes me....The HERD thinks they're smart, they THINK they understand the trade here.  The REALITY is this.....With Gold and silver prices at historic highs and the economy now showing real signs of life, the right side of the trade is to be SHORT metals....NOT LONG...The easy money has already been made on the way up.  The WEAK hands are all LONG...A perfect example of those weak hands are the dopes that go out NOW and buy gold or silver....The SECOND that market shows any signs of weakness these people are headed for the doors......and here's the REALITY....As the scared money hits the bid......

JP MORGANS short position becomes profitable.

Need proof???

Look who bought FLORIDA CONDO's at the absolute TOP of that market.....The HERD.
The HERD always pays top dollar...it doesn't matter if you're talking about paying $35,000 for a TOYOTA PRIUS when gas was $4.00/ gallon in 2008 or trading in their SUV's for PEANUTS at the same time....THEN...2 years later BUYING ANOTHER SUV at full price when they realized they hated their PRIUS!!!!

This is how I make MONEY, save money and create wealth.  Doing the exact opposite of what the HERD is doing.

Ford just announced the hiring of 1800 workers to meet demand for it's cars.  JD Power just released it's owner LOYALITY results.....FORD is at NUMBER ONE.  Over the next few years the DIVIDEND will return...WATCH what happens.  I mention these things for ONE REASON....It is with the HOPE the people here can someday benefit for the inevitable REPEAT of these situations.

[InvstrPaul]

We'll see if it crashes JP or not but there are a few things I'd like to bring up.  JP Morgan is being investigated for how many counts of illegal market manipulation right now?  Now if you argue that the government will bail them out, or not actually prosecute them then I'd say you have a very valid point.  But, even the dumbass herd is starting to get tired of getting the shaft.  Civil unrest especially in Western Europe is on the rise and it's spreading.  The only signs or life in the Economy I have seen have been on the major news channels.  Unemployment is still in the crapper (sh*t I was just laid off today, but my new job for the city should start in a few weeks so hopefully no big deal).  What little increase in employment we have seen has mainly been part time work which may or may not provide survival but not a living.  Even the Federal Government has reduced jobs and pay (they hardly ever do the right thing).

I'd be hesitant to call the silver buying as a "herd" because if it is one, it's one of the smallest herds I've ever seen.  If you consider it a herd then I think you could probably consider all of the real estate investors a herd as well.  I know you use it as an analogy to help show the path less traveled but I think you are reaching in this case. I think to have better clarity we shouldn't look at what most people are doing but look at what is most successful regardless of the actual population participating in the activity.

Now my case for silver.  Am I one of those who get all teary eyed at the thought of the people's silver revolution and hop on the bandwagon? No.  I'm not worried about having silver to use as barter during the coming Road Warrior Apocalypse.  If I believed that was coming I still wouldn't load up because my family and I are avid marksmen so I'd just buy a few more cases of ammo.  I was looking into buying silver because:

    1. Finite natural resource
    2. Used extensively in manufacturing, especially electronics
    3. We use more than we mine each year
    4. Asia is starting to really accelerate their modernization especially India and China
    5. The current price ratio between gold and silver is way out of wack with the historic ratio.
    6. Hedge against inflation.
    6. It's a pretty cool present for the kids in my family.


Final Thought: Glad to hear about Ford because I bought a few shares towards the beginning of your recommendations.

[fdjake]

Good points....and an interesting topic.

[InvstrPaul]

Good points....and an interesting topic.

Thanks, just wish we could get a little more activity on the forum.

[justin0419]

Good comparison to RE investors.  Just look at the activity (or lack thereof) on this board.  We're just now starting to see a few new people asking questions about getting their first property.  Most people are still worried that property values could go a little lower and they'd lose money.  Meanwhile, some of us have been out buying during the rough times when no one else wanted to.  I've enjoyed the lack of competition while rental demand remains high.

[Hoosier4life2005]

Good points....and an interesting topic.

Thanks, just wish we could get a little more activity on the forum.

I agree, the inactivity here is disapointing.  I dont post much, but I lurk here all the time.

[InvstrPaul]

I don't post much just because I don't have any experience with RE except from what I've learned from this site.  I should be getting a job as a police dispatcher for the city within the next month or so.  After I'm hired there it will be my first job that will actually get me above the poverty level.  So hopefully in the coming months I'll be asking advice on purchasing my first home.  In the meantime (including past few years) I've been able to sock some savings and Roth IRA away.  So I've been buying a little silver, Ford, Harley Davidson, etc.  I actually save about 1/2 of the money I make.  So my saving % is high but it doesn't really matter since my overall dollar amount is low.  Now if I can keep the % high while increasing my wages then I'll actually start accumulating some wealth.  I'm really focusing on just keeping up good money habits.

@Justin: I'm glad things are going well for you.  Buy some extra properties for all of us that don't have cash while you can.  I still think we have a couple years of good buying but no point in waiting when you can buy up a section of the World right now.

[justin0419]

Hopefully this new job will mean some good financial changes for you.  Luckily you weren't out of work long.  I hope you're right and can buy your own house pretty soon.  I agree with you.  I don't think housing prices will go up much in the next couple years so there should be plenty of good buying opportunities out there. 

[allagash]

This is how I make MONEY, save money and create wealth.  Doing the exact opposite of what the HERD is doing.

but sure is nice doing some leveraged piggybacking of market herding....aka Soros style....

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TNA&p=D&st=2010-09-01&en=(today)&id=p23018796767

can't remember where I read about his usage of this technique, (piling in when something is going up), but as they say....there's more than one way to skin a cat.

-Mike

[InvstrPaul]

Hopefully this new job will mean some good financial changes for you.  Luckily you weren't out of work long.  I hope you're right and can buy your own house pretty soon.  I agree with you.  I don't think housing prices will go up much in the next couple years so there should be plenty of good buying opportunities out there. 

The main reason I was laid off was due to this new job.  Stanley Steemer was never my endgame just a place to make some money in the interim.  I applied to become a police dispatcher back in the summer and it has taken months to jump through all the hoops.  Computer test, panel interview, polygraph, background check (they contacted my boss at Stanley), psych eval, and on this wed (my birthday btw) I will be meeting with the major and police chief.  So anyways this is the slow season and they laid off all of the crappy employees and the few employees like me that had other jobs lined up that Stanley knew about.  So hopefully on my birthday I'll get some good news at the meeting and within a few weeks have a decent job that actually improves my community.

If I get the new job I'll be making decent money(mid to high 30k) for my first professional job.  It isn't as much as I would eventually like to make but for what the job is I can't complain about the wages.  I'm hoping in my time off that I can start dealing in a little bit of RE.  I've considered maybe making my first home a multi-family but I'm not sure how my gf would feel about it.  We've been together for almost 7 years so her opinion does matter unlike a 6 month fling.  I've also been thinking about tax liens since they don't require as much money to get started compared to what a lot of you other guys do.

And back to silver...should arrive in a few weeks and it will be a little late for Christmas but that's ok.  I'm going to give them to people with a note saying "Carry me in your pocket as a reminder of what is precious to you."  So far JPMorgan is still around but these investigations are starting to pile up and what little information is being released seems to be pretty damning.

[rookieNYC]

right side of the trade is to be SHORT metals....NOT LONG...The easy money has already been made on the way up.  The WEAK hands are all LONG


I agree %100......IMO we are witnessing the 7th inning of Gold's upward move...Some more to go but closer to the end of its run than the beginning..

[InvstrPaul]

right side of the trade is to be SHORT metals....NOT LONG...The easy money has already been made on the way up.  The WEAK hands are all LONG


I agree %100......IMO we are witnessing the 7th inning of Gold's upward move...Some more to go but closer to the end of its run than the beginning..

Rookie what are your views on commodities in general and/or specific views on certain commodities?  From what I've read/heard most people should stay outside of commodities, excluding precious metals, because the weight that most of the major players can throw around will crush the individual investor.  I'm considering going long on certain food staple commodities due to weak harvests and a resulting increase in food prices.

[rookieNYC]

Excuse my typos ...Using my blackberry....

The reason why I say for investors to stay away from commodities is because of extreme volatility...When commodities pull back its a collapse not a pullback...I would say over the next few years to concentrate on tech etf's...Even taking this one step further and just simply index or use the 2x volatily tech etf's....Tech does good during inflationary times...At the same time its often difficult for me to give investing advice because I never want anyone to lose money...I react different than a normal investor so I often preach dollar cost averaging and taking a very long term view or it becomes gambling...I firmly believe a young investor should be utilizing a 401k because it works as a forced savings and I like long term dollar cost averaging for these type of investors...Diversification is a tricky topic so I won't touch on that...Keep in mind that any money invested on a short term basis is considered risk capital...Risk capital is %100 exposed...So be careful..Investing is not something that is to be looked on as "go big or go home"..The downside is painful unless you invest little amounts over a long period of time...

[InvstrPaul]

The few stocks and funds that I own have all been very long investments...like until I retire.  Now if any of them happen to explode overnight I'd be smiling like a fool the next day but that isn't the goal in mind that I have.  I generally look 3+ years out as a minimum for my stock/fund investments.  I don't mind waiting for any investment as long as the payoff is worth it and the investment has a solid foundation.  I dollar cost average not just due to risk but also because I'm still young and don't have the cash on hand to go all in.  My views on diversification are that too much and you won't lose/make money but too little and you will lose/make a lot.

Anything besides tech that are you looking into?  I've also been looking at health care and every now and then I'll glance at home builders to see if they have a pulse yet.