Silver vs. JPMorgan

[InvstrPaul]

Seriously, Investor Paul, you don't have anything better to do with your time than to stand around throwing pebbles at J P Morgan?

How about channeling that time and energy into making some money for yourself and your own family?

Let's see I was laid off and finished the hiring process for a better job all within a week.  I've also rearranged my Roth IRA holdings, bought a little bit of stock, started on my taxes, studied for the LSAT, and plan on going to a sheriff's sale on the 29th.  Not sure what else you want me to do but hey I appreciate you looking out for my family's financial well being even if you mentioned it in a derogatory manner.

Seriously, Tatertot, you don't have anything better to do with your time than to stand around and throw pebbles at me?

If you disagree with my take on silver, like many of the others, that's fine I have absolutely no problem with that.  However, the others also expressed their viewpoints while adding something to the discussion.  It's easy to be sarcastic, skeptical, and critical towards others and ideas.  It takes much more effort to believe, stand by your convictions, and enlighten others.  FDJake had the good grace to help me reevaluate my words/actions from earlier on...hopefully you'll reevaluate yours.

@John_in_NC:  Good for you man lets us know how it turns out.

[allagash]

Back to investing.  I've only had the time to do a little bit of preliminary research on some close end funds and etfs.  I keep coming across this mantra of trend following for ETFs.  Basically, you wait for the price to go below 200 day moving average to sell and vice versa to buy.  Sounds like a bunch of basic theoretical short-term almost day trading type techniques to me.  But, I've read it in quite a few places and I figured I'd ask about it.  It kind of makes sense in a basic sandbox style classroom setting but in the real world...ehhh seems too easy and if it worked why isn't everyone doing it?  It goes against my find a solid undervalued company/fund/sector for long term gains principles.  The only thing that I thought had real value in these articles was the way they setup their buying and selling points so they had emotionless stop losses to prevent any major catastrophes.

Probably one of the biggest things I learned from rookieNYC is to focus on the major indexes......and not spend endless hours on fundamental analysis of individual companies.

Here's a video from Marketclub that demonstrates usage of their algorithm.....much along the lines of your 200 day MA approach:

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/nasdaq1123/

-Mike
ouch:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=V&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p57039774958

[InvstrPaul]

Probably one of the biggest things I learned from rookieNYC is to focus on the major indexes......and not spend endless hours on fundamental analysis of individual companies.

Here's a video from Marketclub that demonstrates usage of their algorithm.....much along the lines of your 200 day MA approach:

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/nasdaq1123/

-Mike
ouch:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=V&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p57039774958

Good stuff thanks for the link.  I usually don't focus on specific stocks unless there is some reasoning behind it besides technical analysis.  A few examples would be Ford, Harley Davidson, and GE.  Solid companies that have been around for a while, are doing well, and have a bright future ahead of them.  It just seems like on every blog, forum, club, or meeting you can go to about the stock market includes a lot of technical analysis mumbo jumbo.  Don't get me wrong it has it's place but I just don't see how people can have the time to go through hundreds of stocks to find the ones that fit their "fool-proof system".  It seems like most intelligent/winning investors/experts find a company that has a solid foundation for an investment and then do technical analysis after that as part of their final decision.

It's always a fun conversation when you ask a broker/expert why they haven't averaged out better than the market over the years if their system is so good.

[rookieNYC]

It just seems like on every blog, forum, club, or meeting you can go to about the stock market includes a lot of technical analysis mumbo jumbo.  Don't get me wrong it has it's place but I just don't see how people can have the time to go through hundreds of stocks to find the ones that fit their "fool-proof system".  It seems like most intelligent/winning investors/experts find a company that has a solid foundation for an investment and then do technical analysis after that as part of their final decision

Technical Analysis is a very important part of any investors arsenal..Knowing overbought and oversold cant be emphasized enough..And fwiw there is software that sifts through 1000's of stock symbols scanning for all types of setups a trader/investor looks for ...Years ago we used a system called the Bigeasyinvestor....It was great then I think Ameritrade or Etrade bought the software and made only their customers have access to it..Now there are many,so the idea that any one person has to search through 1000's of symbols is incorrect...

And just to prove a point how important technical analysis is even to a big time billionaire investor like Warren Buffet I ask you this...What is his famous line?...Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful...When are people fearful???,When markets are tanking and the equities are oversold...

[kdhastedt]

(I'm 6 hours older). 
...I would add to this comment but I'm liable to get booted by a female moderator....

We have no female Moderators at this time...

Keith

[allagash]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGQ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p07660421808

Good stuff thanks for the link.

sure....

gem:

http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Zone-Confidence-Discipline-Attitude/dp/0735201447

-Mike

[InvstrPaul]

I'll have to check and see if my library has that book.  Seems most of my spare time as of late has been spent on sleeping, working out, and studying flash cards for all the radio codes I have to remember.

Today at the shift change meeting we found out that the Kansas City Police are in big doodoo.  The FBI set up a sting operation on the KCPD swat team and ended up arresting them for theft.  I believe it was 6 of them and they have been released but are on unpaid admin leave.  Their police chief sure looked distressed on the news.  From what we have been told the swat team had been accused of stealing several thousand dollars over the past year at drug raids.  So the Chief asked for outside help and bam FBI delivered and now his department looks bad and these guys are setting police reputation way back.  I'm just glad I work in a suburb and it wasn't our department.

Anyways, I'm saving as much money as I can and I should have all my training finished in late April or early May.  That's when I plan to buy my first house and I'll have tues-thurs off during the week to do RE/Investing.  Oh and a note on Silver: Everyone liked their Christmas gifts and I'll be buying a little more in a few days...nothing outrageous but just a few ounces here and there while it is still cheap.

[allagash]

and studying flash cards

Great technique.....I've done the same with leveraged and non-leveraged ETF ticker symbols.

With regard to the book I mentioned....there's a lot of glossing over crap out there....but this one, Trading In The Zone, is a well researched look at the paradox of trading and a dissection of the psychology that comes into play.

-Mike

[InvstrPaul]

and studying flash cards

Great technique.....I've done the same with leveraged and non-leveraged ETF ticker symbols.

It isn't sexy and it's downright boring but it works well.  I've memorized all the codes and the phonetic alpahbet but it still takes me a while to transfer the meaning.  The alphabet was the worst since I'm used to military/aviation alphabet and not the LEO version.

I've got the book ordered and it should be at my doorstep in a week or so.

[ZoeyXin]

Over the debate between Silver versus JP Morgan, I read from this article  New JPMorgan report predicts consumer spending will rise, the JP Morgan gives forecast on economic aspect of America. Chase, one of the largest lending firms in the U.S., says in a new report that customer spending might be on the increase. In spite of high joblessness, the real estate crisis and inflation, JP Morgan claims American businesses should get ready for and work at increasing customer spending confidence.